The heavy to very rain warning for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala would peak to ‘heavy to very heavy with extremely heavy rain’ on Sunday, according to the latest outlook.
Heavy rain would also lash Coastal Karnataka and South Interior Karnataka the same day, according to the outlook of the Chennai regional Meteorological Centre.
Oman-bound?
This would coincide with the intensification phase of the ‘intense low-pressure area’ that is forecast to shape up over the South-East Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep by Saturday.
As the system gathers more strength to become a prospective cyclone, it would also keep moving away from the Kerala and Karnataka coasts and later Lakshadweep.
The India Met Department (IMD) on Thursday said that the cyclone would move towards the Oman coast, though there are other weather models contesting this projection.
Wind speeds may increase over the South-East and central Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area becoming squally and reaching 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr from Saturday.
They will pick up further speed later, the IMD said. Along with this, sea conditions would become ‘rough’ to ‘very rough’ (wave heights ranging between eight ft to 20 ft).
Fishermen warned
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the deep-sea in South-East and Central Arabian Sea from Saturday. Those out at deep sea are advised to return before Saturday.
The IMD has also taken note of a circulation over the South Bay of Bengal where it sees a low-pressure area evolving by Monday. A couple of circulations have taken up position in the neighbourhood.
Combining with the brewing cyclone across the peninsula, the low’ would help strengthen the easterly flows to herald the North-East monsoon.
The IMD has also alluded to the rapid movement of western disturbances across the North Arabian Sea and North-West India over the next four to five days.
This has implications for the onward track for the prospective cyclone. The first disturbance moved in from West Pakistan to park itself over Jammu & Kashmir on Thursday morning. A successor disturbance is awaiting its turn, and lay spreadeagled over North-East Afghanistan and its neighbourhood.
A third one is likely to follow and ultimately affect the western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of North-West India from Monday.
The back-to-back movement of these systems from the opposite side could have a bearing on the track of the incoming cyclone from the South, according to some weather models.
Additionally, the 'low' forecast over the South-West Bay and its likely intensification would be enough to anchor the westerly monsoon flows and hold the cyclone closer to the West Coast.
This would make for a more northerly to north-easterly track in tandem with the movement of the western disturbances from West to East across the North Arabian Sea.
This could in turn take the cyclone towards the Makran or Karachi coast (Pakistan) or the North-West coast of Gujarat and adjoining South-West Rajasthan (India).
Wind-field maps show that the wind regime over the South Peninsula has turned decidedly easterly, likely setting the stage for the arrival of the North-East monsoon.