The low-pressure area originating from the Bay of Bengal crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast on Thursday. It has intensified and is located over coastal Andhra Pradesh.
The ‘low’ brought with it heavy to very heavy rain over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Konkan and Goa during the 24 hours ending in the morning, an India Met Department (IMD) update said.
Heavy rain was also reported from Uttarkhand, west Uttar Pradesh, the plains of Bengal, Sikkim, Madhya Maharashtra and South Interior Karnataka.
In the process, the rainfall deficit for the country as a whole has reduced to 4 per cent after holding stubbornly at 5 per cent from the last weekend. The individual deficit for the South has also come down from as high as -13 per cent last week to -9 per cent.
According to the US National Centre for Environmental Prediction, the ‘well-marked low’ over coastal Andhra Pradesh would track west into the interior of the peninsula over the next few days.
IMD projections indicate that the ‘low’ would travel west-northwest towards West Madhya Pradesh and adjoining South Gujarat over the next three-four days.
Along the way, it will cause moderate to heavy, including very heavy, rain over Konkan and Goa, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, coastal Karnataka, South Inteiror Karnataka, right until Monday next.
An extended forecast valid from September 27 (Tuesday) to 29 (Thursday) said that rain is likely along the West Coast and over Central India, North-East India, East India and the Peninsula.
The IMD also said that conditions for withdrawal of the monsoon, stalled for now over parts of west Rajasthan, would become favourable from September 27.
This would mean that the rainy season would resume its withdrawal from more parts of adjoining North-West India towards the month end.
It remains to be seen if it can progress without a further hitch in view of the formation of a fresh cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of Thailand, across the Andaman Islands.
But forecasts for formation of the next ‘low’ vary from model to model.