The India Met Department has now upgraded the watch for a conventional low-pressure area (‘low’) in South-West Bay of Bengal to that of a monsoon depression likely forming by Monday.
It has thus confirmed the possibility of a storm brewing in the Bay of Bengal.
On Thursday, a preparatory upper air circulation had formed off Sri Lanka, which would descend to the lower levels to become a ‘low.’
This is expected to happen by Saturday, but according to the Met, the ‘low’ will intensify twice over (‘low’ to well-marked ‘low’) to become a depression by Monday.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sticks to its prediction that the system will move west-northwest and wallop Sri Lanka and adjoining southern peninsula of India by Tuesday.
It will probably strengthen into a cyclone off the coast of Kerala but not step out into the Arabian Sea and get pushed deeper into peninsular India by a ridge (anti-cyclone) emerging from the Middle-East.
Different scenarioAccording to the European agency, the system will weaken over land and settle over Telangana and Coastal Andhra Pradesh by May 22.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction paints a difference scenario.
It sees the depression splitting into two and the bigger splinter intensifying into a probable cyclone and moving along the East Coast of India (off Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha).
The bulk of the activity would be based out into the sea, sparing the land from major damage or destruction, the US agency assessed.
Monsoon onset?It sees the other splinter moving north along the West Coast, bringing heavy to very heavy rain to Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Konkan-Goa from May 20 to 28.
The US Climate Prediction Centre forecast favours ‘with moderate confidence’ possibility of storm formation during the next two weeks (May 11-17 and May 18-24) in the Arabian Sea/Bay of Bengal.
It said that a ‘low’ forming near the may travel from Maldives eastward and then northeast-ward into the Bay of Bengal.