A day after its genesis, a rogue low-pressure area in the Arabian Sea is forecast to become a tropical cyclone by a number of weather models.
India Met Department appears to take the brewing cyclone to the northwest Arabian Sea for a likely landfall over the Yemen-Oman coast in another week’s time.
But two other leading models suspect that the system may steer to the north-northeast and strike south Gujarat around Surat and adjoining Mumbai in a week’s time.
These are the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and a Global Forecast Model of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction.
India Met has located the low-pressure area to the southeast Arabian Sea and neighbourhood and has put it already under watch for intensification.
The ‘low’ would strengthen a round to a well-marked ‘low’ by tomorrow and further into a depression two days later, according to a bulletin issued this afternoon.
India Met watch
But wind field projections depicted on its site hint its onward intensification as a likely tropical cyclone tracking away from the Indian coast in a west-northwest direction towards the Arabian Gulf, along the Yemen-Oman coastline.
The two other models stick their neck out suggesting that the cyclone would actually steer mid-course towards north-northeast and hit South Gujarat-Mumbai.
The timeline for the landfall in this manner is also around the month-end, around October 29-30, according to the European and US model forecasts.
Drains moisture
Meanwhile, the brewing weather system in the Arabian Sea has drained the south peninsula of some moisture.
This morning, an upper air cyclonic circulation has formed once again off the Sri Lanka coast, which should bring rain to parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep today.
There is also the presence of the rain-friendly Madden-Julian Oscillation wave in the higher levels over the tropical Indian Ocean/west Arabian Sea.
According to the Met, the heavy rain may lift from tomorrow as the away-looking ‘low’ in the Arabian Sea starts intensifying.
Outlook for a counterpart ‘low’ in the Andaman Sea is retained, but models are not very confident about it since the entire activity is now shifting to the Arabian Sea.