Western end of monsoon trough, the main meteorological feature that sets up rainfall over North India, has shifted close to the foothills of the Himalayas, signalling a weak monsoon.
Rains will be confined to around these regions and also parts of East India and the East Coast until the trough shifts back to its normal southerly alignment.
It can happen only with formation of a low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal.
A preparatory cyclonic circulation has set up a perch over the region, an India Met Department update said on Monday.
It expects a ‘low’ to pop up here over the next two days, but at least one international model suspects that it may not show up until at least September 3.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees the ‘low’ being delayed well past the month end.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction seemed to agree with India Met and projects the ‘low’ weaving in along a westerly and north-westerly track within East India.
Deficit at new highThe strong north-westerly flows from the opposite side could force it to weaken and trace back its track towards the Bay.
This means that Central and North-West India would continue to undergo a dry spell as will the larger South Peninsula. On Monday, the overall rain deficit for the country as a whole went up a notch to 11 per cent.
With no significant rain forecast during the rest of August, normally the second rainiest after July, the deficit could soon grow past the 12 per cent-mark set by India Met for entire season.
Monsoon starts withdrawing from Rajasthan from September 1 to begin a month-long retreat before it signs out over southwest peninsular by September 30.