Seasonal north-easterly winds have set in over the southern parts of the East Coast, signalling the exit of the South-West monsoon from the entire country and its surrounding seas.
Conditions are now favourable for commencement of monsoon in reverse (North-East monsoon) over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and adjoining parts of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka from Sunday.
Meanwhile, heavy rainfall has already been reported from the coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh during the 24 hours ending on Friday morning.
This is attributed to the presence of a low-pressure area left behind by erstwhile cyclone
The ‘low’ was located 249 km south-southwest of Visakhapatnam around midnight last night.
Weather warning Satellite pictures on Friday evening showed that some of the associated clouding has massed up over Chirala, Nagayalanka, Machlipatnam, Guntur, and Vijayawada, probably raining variously.
Meanwhile, a weather warning issued by the India Met Department (IMD) for the next three days in view of the expected arrival of the North-East monsoon is as follows.
Saturday and Sunday: Heavy rainfall at isolated places over coastal Andhra Pradesh and coastal Tamil Nadu.
Monday: Heavy rainfall at isolated places over Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
Tuesday: Heavy rainfall at isolated places very likely over Kerala.
The North-East monsoon has been delayed by almost a fortnight; its play-out will be closely monitored by the farmers and various State government agencies in the South.
Rains delayed A National Agromet Advisory Service Bulletin issued by the Agricultural Meteorology Division of the IMD has pointed to the dire situation here following the failure of the South-West monsoon.
It said that during the last four weeks, extreme to severe dry conditions have been reported from in many districts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
Similar conditions have also wrought havoc at a few districts of Andhra Pradesh and Kerala as well as the Chamarajanagar, Hassan, Kodagu, Kolar, Mysuru, Tumakuru, Chickballapur districts of Karnataka.
Model outlook The US National Centre for Environmental Prediction sees rain-setting systems criss-crossing the southern Bay of Bengal towards the South-East (Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh) coasts up to November 12 until when forecasts are available.
But there is no forecast about a significantly high precipitation for any part of the South Peninsula during this period, except for southern Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
According to the US Climate Prediction Centre, most of South Peninsula may witness normal precipitation during the first week (October 28-November 3) but is likely to dry up during the subsequent week (November 4-10).