The second flush North Indian tea, known for its premium quality, will be late, largely due to the erratic weather. As a result, the crop period will be shorter and crop size smaller. Also, it will not be pure second flush but mixed flush, say tea industry sources.
“Normally, the second flush starts from May 10 and continues till end June but this year the first crop of second flush is unlikely to be available before the third week, if not later, if the present situation is any indication”, observe the sources. “We will be lucky if we get four weeks of second flush”.
Inquiries reveal that the tea now being offered in North Indian auction centres at Kolkata, Guwahati and Siliguri is called Bhanji, a not-so- satisfactory quality tea produced in the lull period between first flush and second flush. The second flush tea is unlikely to come to auction before the third week of June, according to a leading tea auctioneer. This year the first flush too was short and mixed, again due to the weather. The first flush crop normally becomes available between March and the middle of April.
N Indian crop size
Meanwhile, the Tea Board figures available till March show that the North Indian crop till March (January to March) was down more than eight million kg vis-à-vis the same period of the previous year and the South Indian crop more than four million kg, thus totalling more than 12 million kg.
Reports pouring in from the gardens suggest that in April the major North Indian producers suffered a crop loss of about 30 per cent and the South Indian producers a couple of million kg. In Dooars, hailstorm damaged the crop heavily.
Buoyant prices
Expectedly, the prices will be buoyant and it is already visible. The auction price on an average is up by Rs 25-30 a kg over that in the previous year. For some categories, the rise is higher, Rs 40-50. This trend will only continue as further shortfall in production is apprehended even as the demand rises.
Global shortfall
The shortage persists even globally. Till March, the Kenyan crop, all CTC, was down 12.7 million kg and the Sri Lankan crop, all Orthodox, six million kg. The situation in April, for which firm figures are yet to be available, is unlikely to be different. The Orthodox production in India too would be low – it was low last year and might be even lower this year, it is learnt. Which means a bonanza for Orthodox producers and exporters is imminent as the prices generally hit the roof in shortage situation, add the sources.