Back-to-back intense western disturbances may unfold some blockbuster winter weather for a week and more over North-West India from Monday, while in the south, parts of Tamil Nadu continued to reverberate under the show-stopper drencher that soaked Chennai during the year-end.
In fact, the first western disturbance has set sail with a paraphernalia of mountain snow and rainfall all the way from the Mediterranean, even as a parent Arctic weather system is setting up mega-sized but contrasting weather events over North America (low-pressure, snow storms) and Europe (warming).
Storied tracks of systems
The west-to-east moving disturbances are perturbations of the ‘atmospheric rivers’ (jet streams) that slam Canada, the US and Europe and are responsible for setting up winter-time snow and rainfall over Central Asia, West Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and North-West India. They pick up moisture from the Mediterranean, the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea. But intense ones, such as the incoming systems, also dip into the North Arabian Sea and gather extra moisture before entering North-West India.
In this manner, the first system is forecast to spread snowfall and thunderstorms over Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, the UAE, Afghanistan, Pakistan and North-West India. The rain, snow, thunderstorms are beneficial for the standing (Rabi) crop while winds and hail are variously harmful. The India Meteorological Department said on Sunday that the two active disturbances will set up offspring cyclonic circulations and affect North-West India from Monday and adjoining Central India from Friday.
Wet weather
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/snowfall is likely over Jammu & Kashmir along with isolated heavy falls on Tuesday and Wednesday, and over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on Wednesday.
Isolated hailstorms are also likely, the IMD said. Scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall is likely over the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, North Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh from Wednesday to Friday.
Isolated thunderstorms activity is likely over Punjab, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, accompanied with hailstorms over Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan on Wednesday.
The second western disturbance will cause rainfall/snowfall to scale up over the hills of North-West India from Friday to Sunday (January 7 to 9). Isolated heavy falls are likely on Saturday.
It will be scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rain/thunderstorms over the plains of North-West and adjoining Central India with isolated heavy rains and hailstorms over Rajasthan and adjoining West Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh during this period.
Heavy rain over South TN
Meanwhile, parts of Tamil Nadu received very heavy rain during the 24 hours ending on Sunday morning with significant amounts (in cm) being reported from Peravurani (Thanjavur)-22; Muthupet (Tiruvarur)-18; Tirumayam (Pudukottai)-13; and Natham (Dindigul)-11.
Other centres receiving heavy rainfall included Manalmedu (Mayiladuthurai)-9; Kattumannar Koil (Cuddalore)-8; Jayamkondam (Ariyalur), Vedaranyam (Nagapattinam) and Perambalur-7 each.
The enhanced rain activity may start to weaken from Monday but may trigger a pitter-patter as incoming western disturbances from North-West India interact with weakening easterlies from the Bay of Bengal.