The verdict in the recent Assembly elections in five States has brought to the fore at least one thing with emphatic clarity: farmer woes in the country are real and can play a decisive role in the 2019 general elections.
Notwithstanding the Narendra Modi Government’s claims that it has been doing enough to mitigate the problems faced by the farmers, the poll results clearly indicate that the intentions haven’t translated much into actions on the ground, or at least it hasn’t been able to convince the farmer much.
The doubling of farmers’ income by 2022 still remains a slogan, even though more than two years have passed since the declaration of the intent. The fact that those parties that have done something for the farmer or have promised to address the problems of farmers could garner votes — as seen in Telangana and Chhattisgarh particularly — may lead to political parties offering more sops for farmers in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls.
Two BJP-ruling States —Assam and Jharkhand — have already moved in this direction. This comes close on the heels of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where the new government announced farm loan waivers immediately after taking over the reins. While Assam announced it will waive the loans taken by farmers through Kisan credit cards and from public sector banks, the Jharkhand government said its 26 lakh small and marginal farmers will get support of ₹5,000 per acre in the coming kharif crop season. The Jharkhand scheme is very similar to the Rythu Bandhu scheme implemented by Telangana last year.
Unlike the previous two years, which received normal monsoon, rains have been patchy this year. Many parts of agriculturally-important States such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Bihar and Jharkhand received lesser-than-normal rainfall, precipitating a drought-like condition. Some of the States have already approached the Centre for drought relief. According to analysts, the decline in sowing in these States during the current rabi season is more than 5% and this may have an impact on rabi output, close to the time of the polls.
There have been widespread protests from farmers across the country, putting the government under intense pressure — the latest being a massive one in the Capital which was supported by over 200 farmer groups and took place in November amidst the State Assembly elections. The farmer groups have been demanding better remunerative prices for their produce as well as a one-time waiver of their crop loans so that they can start afresh. Low prices that farm produce command in the market continue to be a worry for farmers. So are the prices of milk and most vegetables.
There were reported instances of farmers refusing to harvest their vegetable or fruit crops because of abysmally low prices. Despite the Government’s claim of announcing several price support mechanisms such as Pradhan Mantri Annadata Aay Sanrakshan Abhiyan, the market prices of the agricultural commodities rule lower than minimum support prices. As a result, farmers have less cash in hand and this has an adverse impact on rural spending, directly hitting many sectors of industry such as automobiles, consumer durables, and FMCG.
Export measures
However it will be wrong to say that the government hasn’t been making any effort. On the export-import front, it has taken a number of measures correcting several missteps it had taken in the past. A slew of measures to restrict cheaper exports of produce like palm oil or wheat and to encourage exports of domestic produce have had a positive impact to some extent.
The recently announced agricultural export policy is a move in this direction, even though it may be a while before the benefits start accruing. The current global food commodity market is not very encouraging too. According to the monthly food price index prepared by the Food and Agriculture Organisation, the average food prices in November are ruling the lowest since May 2016.