Did Budget 2018 just trigger a downslide in ties between the Telugu Desam Party and the BJP? Will it ultimately push the two parties to call off the alliance?
After Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu expressed ‘disappointment’ at the ‘neglect’ shown to the State’s ‘just demands’, indications are that relations between the two parties have hit a low. AP’s big-ticket projects — the ‘dream capital’ Amaravati, the Polavaram irrigation project, a Special Railway Zone for Visakhapatnam — have all been virtually ‘cold shouldered’.
Naidu has called for a meeting of his Cabinet and senior leaders on Sunday in Amaravati to discuss the issue.
Political experts feel that unless the BJP does something to assuage the AP CM, who is under tremendous pressure from the Opposition and the people of the State to show results after the tall promises he made, the partnership will head for a split before 2019. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley reportedly said the interests of AP would be taken care of. Political circles are agog with speculation that an ‘angry’ Chandrababu is not just expressing displeasure and confabulating with his Cabinet members, but also reaching out to NDA members such as Shiv Sena, the Akali Dal and some of his earlier friends in the Opposition to first build pressure on the Modi Government, failing which to explore options of forging an alternative alliance.
Naidu under fire in State
There has been a growing unease in the past two years in the alliance between the TDP and the BJP which dispensation has been in power in the State since 2014. The rift between them has widened, especially after the visit of BJP President Amit Shah in the summer of 2017. With the Centre neither fulfilling its promises nor giving adequate funds to enable Naidu to push ahead with projects, the progress in building Amaravati, completing the Polavaram project and bringing institutes and jobs in compensation for the division of the erstwhile AP has slowed down.
This has given ammunition to Leader of Opposition YS Jaganmohan Reddy, President of the YSR Congress, to take on the CM with gusto.
An emboldened Jagan, who is on a 3,000-km ‘Prajasankalpa Yatra’ (long walk), has since November last, launched a blistering attack against the TDP government and Naidu in every speech in the villages and towns along his route.
The attitude of the NDA government has only given a handle to Jagan to intensify his criticism. The perception has gained ground that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Naidu are not on the best of terms: the two have been meeting infrequently. Even the formal appointment-based interaction in New Delhi recently happened after a full year. The Modi-Shah duo’s political ‘master stroke’ to move M Venkaiah Naidu out of the Union Cabinet and make him Vice-President has in a way weakened Chandrababu Naidu’s reach within the NDA government.
It was an open secret that Venkaiah Naidu as Union Minister with important portfolios was a ‘frequent flyer’ to both the Telugu States and more to AP. The Naidu duo participated in many events and developmental activities in AP.
Chandrababu, unlike his influential years during the United Front and Vajpayee led NDA of 1996 to 2004, where he was a kingmaker and had his say, finds himself a ‘pale shadow’ in the NDA led by Modi. He just has two lightweight Ministers – Ashok Gajapathi Raju (Civil Aviation) and YS Chowdhury, a junior Minister in S&T – who can deliver little.
Tough times
Overall, Chandrababu finds himself in a unenviable situation. Breaking away from the NDA alliance also in not an easy option, given the disarray in the Opposition and his stated anti-Congress stand. The surveys showing high popularity of Narendra Modi and lack of assertive leaders among the regional parties are not encouraging news either. On the home turf, the people of AP have become restive. They want him to deliver on promises. On two counts Chandrababu finds himself on a sticky wicket: Jagan is waiting with open arms to tie up with the BJP in 2019. Secondly, the role of the TDP chief in the ‘Vote for Note’ scam of 2015 Telangana Legislative Council election is `dormant’ and can always emerge as a serious irritant.
His biggest advantage as far as AP is concerned is the huge baggage of corruption cases that Jagan carries around. Next, though his image as a ‘doer’ is getting dented, the tireless efforts he is putting in for the development of the State can give him an edge over Jagan, unless the young, restless and temperamental YSR Congress chief can somehow get his act together by sobering down and overcome his recent political past.