In the 12 months ending March 31, 2013, Air India is once again expected to be the worst performer in the industry and to report a loss of Rs 700 crore.
This has been brought out in the report ‘India Outlook 2012/13' prepared by the Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation. The study shows that Kingfisher Airlines is projected to lose Rs 120-140 crore, although the remaining four private carriers combined could post a modest profit of approximately Rs 110 crore.
The estimates are based on assumptions for the whole year of an average brent crude price of $120-125 a barrel, and an exchange rate of Rs 51-52 to the dollar.
Advantage Jet Airways
Although the troubles facing Air India and Kingfisher Airlines have been positive for all of the other carriers, Jet Airways has been, and will continue to be, the largest beneficiary, the study states.
The study does not rule out a temporary shut down in Air India. “The government appears to be preparing to adopt a firm stance, limiting discussions with the unions and it may not shy away from a watershed moment in the next 2-3 months after the report is accepted by the Government, which could include a temporary shutdown of the airline,” the study adds.
The study is of the opinion that Kingfisher Airlines' revival is completely dependent on foreign airline investment being permitted to invest in the domestic aviation sector.
CAPA expects Jet Airways could place a large narrow-body order for over 100 aircraft in FY12/13 to meet both replacement and growth requirements.