Global oil demand will grow at a rate of 1.2 per cent in 2014, rising from this year’s 0.9 per cent on the back of an overall economic recovery, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecast Wednesday.
The world would need 90.7 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, 1 million bpd above this year’s level, the Vienna-based club of major producers said in its first outlook for 2014.
At the same time, the cartel said average demand in 2013 would be slightly lower than previously predicted — 89.64 million instead of 89.65 million bpd.
This downward revision is based on “the more sluggish-than-expected performance of the world economy in the first six months of the year,” OPEC’s analysts said, noting that oil demand forecasts had been lowered especially in China and the Middle East.
Next year’s growth would once again be shouldered by developing countries, the group of 12 major Arab, African and Latin American producers said.
Falling oil consumption in industrialised countries was forecast to slow to 200,000 bpd in 2014, compared to the decline of 400,000 bpd this year.
Production is expected to grow especially in North America, where producers have been extracting oil from rock and sand rather than from traditional wells, according to OPEC, which also expects Latin American and former Soviet Union countries to expand production.
As a result, economies around the world would need only an average of 29.6 million bpd of oil from OPEC countries next year, less than last month’s production of 30.4 million bpd.
The 2014 production forecast is also below OPEC’s current self—imposed output ceiling of 30 million bpd, which had been set to protect price levels.
OPEC’s basket price rose to $104.06 per barrel on Tuesday, according to the latest available quote, amid concerns over the situation in Egypt and higher—than—expected oil consumption in the United States.