Target: ₹500
CMP: ₹468
Mahindra Logistics consolidated revenue grew 4 per cent q-o-q to ₹1,450 crore (PLe: ₹1,420 crore), driven by sequential improvement in standalone 3PL (up 2 per cent q-o-q to ₹1,180 crore), freight forwarding (up 15 per cent to ₹60 crore) and B2B express business (up 2 per cent to ₹100 crore). The management is seeing uptick in activity from the ECom sector, while the FMCG sector is witnessing softness in near term demand.
The management attributes the improvement in truck utilisation towards redesigning the network and churning unprofitable customers.
Consolidated EBITDA rose 8 per cent q-o-q to ₹56.60 crore (PLe: ₹56.70 crore). EBITDA margin expanded 20bps YoY to 3.9 per cent (PLe: 4 per cent) as lower employee expense was partly offset by higher other expenses while consolidated PBT/PAT continued in the negative territory (loss of ₹9.2 crore/₹11.90 crore), but showed sequential improvement (Q3 loss of ₹13.40 crore/₹16.40 crore).
Further, GP/EBITDA breakeven is expected in Q1/Q2FY25 end respectively
The stock is currently trading at 37.2x FY26E earnings. We maintain Accumulate rating with a TP of ₹500 based on 41x FY26E P/E multiple