The US dollar was nursing losses in Asia on Thursday, while bonds held hefty gains as investors scaled back expectations on how fast, and how far, the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates in coming months and years.
Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.6 per cent to heights last seen in 2000 helped by gains in financial and shipping companies.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was near flat with much of the region on holiday. Centres off include China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea.
But oil prices slid as US crude stockpiles swelled by five times more than forecast last week. US crude was down $1.55 at $50.59 a barrel, from a top of $53.41 on Wednesday.
Fed policy meet
Risk appetites had been whetted when minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed “many’’ members wanted to keep rates near zero for longer.
“Our main takeaway from the minutes is that concern about downside risk to inflation has risen and, consequently, the bar for raising rates by June is higher than it was in December,’’ said Barclays economist Michael Gapen.
The shift in expectations was given added impetus by a surprisingly sharp fall in US producer prices which suggested the measure of core inflation followed by the Fed could slow to just 1.2 per cent in January, further away from the central bank’s target of 2 per cent.
US Treasury yields
Investors responded by pushing out the timing of a first Fed hike and by lowering the trajectory of rates for the next couple of years. Yields on two-year debt dived 7 basis points in reaction, the biggest daily drop since August 2011.
Yields on 10-year notes were down at 2.07 per cent from a six-week peak of 2.16 per cent.
That helped Wall Street recoup early losses and the Dow ended down a slim 0.1 per cent. The S&P 500 lost 0.03 per cent, while the Nasdaq added 0.14 per cent.
Falling yields were not so positive for the US dollar which gave ground to its major competitors. The dollar eased to 118.73 yen from 119.26 before the Fed minutes were released, while the euro rose to $1.1402 from $1.1340.
ECB policy minutes
Oddly enough the European Central Bank will publish its first minutes ever later on Thursday, providing insight into just how much support or resistance there was to last month’s landmark decision to buy government bonds.
Sentiment towards the single currency was helped by signs Greece would ask on Thursday for an extension to its “loan agreement’’ with the euro zone as it risks running out of cash.
Financial markets had rallied after Athens said it would submit a request to extend the loan agreement for up to six months, hoping this signalled a last minute compromise to avert a bankruptcy and exit from the euro zone.