French presidential debate lifts euro to six-week high

Rajalakshmi S Updated - January 15, 2018 at 11:28 AM.

Candidates for the 2017 presidential election: Francois Fillon (right), former French Prime Minister, member of the Republicans and candidate of the French centre-right and Emmanuel Macron, head of the political movement En Marche !, or Onwards !, shake hands before a debate organised by French private TV channel TF1 in Aubervilliers, outside Paris, France, March 20, 2017. Photo: Reuters

The euro climbed to a six-week high and French bonds and stocks rallied on Tuesday after centrist Emmanuel Macron's performance in a television debate raised expectations he would win France's presidential election over the far-right's Marine Le Pen.

The dollar was also held back by doubts about how fast US interest rate would rise. Oil prices rallied almost 1 per cent on talk that OPEC could extend supply cuts.

European stock markets opened higher, after a rally in Asia, where MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit 21-month highs, supported by signs of strong global economic growth.

US stock futures pointed to a positive start for Wall Street, which had suffered on Monday as investors worried that President Donald Trump's plan to cut taxes and boost the economy would take longer than expected to realise.

France's turbulent presidential campaign remained in focus for global investors, who have been concerned about the potential for a populist backlash following last year's surprise votes for Brexit in Britain and for Trump in the United States.

A snap opinion poll that followed Monday's televised debate showed Macron, a former economy minister who has never run for public office before, was seen as the most convincing among the top five contenders in a marathon debate.

The debate, and two others that will follow before the April 23 first round, are considered crucial in an election in which nearly 40 per cent of voters say they are not sure who to back.

“From the point of view of international investors, this is a positive as it keeps France's position in the euro zone secure, or at least not weaker,” said DZ Bank analyst Rene Albrecht.

Macron's presidential bid gathered pace on Tuesday after a junior minister said she would back his campaign, becoming the first member of the government to do so.

The prospect of anti-euro, far-right candidate delivering a surprise election win has rattled French bond markets this year.

But on Tuesday, the premium investors demand for holding French 10-year government bonds over German ones narrowed to around 63 basis points from Monday's 68 bps, a near-two-week high.

Safe-haven German Bunds sold off as French election jitters ebbed. French banks such as BNP Paribas and Societe Generale -- bellwethers of sentiment in France -- were among the top gainers on France's benchmark stock index .

The euro rallied to $1.0804, its highest in about six weeks and was 0.3 per cent firmer against sterling.

“The euro has been helped by Macron's performance, definitely,” said Stephen Gallo, head of European FX strategy at Bank of Montreal in London.

The British currency was boosted by stronger-than-expected inflation numbers that took the rate of prices past the Bank of England's 2 per cent target.

Dollar tumbles

The dollar index fell below 100 for the first time since early February and was down almost half a per cent on the day.

The currency was on the defensive after Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans reinforced the perception that the US central bank will not accelerate the pace of its interest rate hikes.

He said on Monday that two more interest rate hikes this year were likely, disappointing investors who had anticipated rates would be increased more quickly.

The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly fell to two-week lows following the comments to 2.461 per cent. It last stood at 2.48 per cent.

Oil prices rallied on expectations that an OPEC-led production cut to prop up the market could be extended.

Prices for front-month Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil, gained 1 per cent to $52.13 per barrel.

OPEC members increasingly favour extending the output curb beyond June to balance the market, sources within the group said, although they added this would require non-OPEC members such as Russia to also step up their efforts.

Elsewhere, Deutsche Bank was in focus as the subscription period for a capital raising began on Tuesday. Shares in Germany's biggest bank rose 2.3 per cent, having tumbled over 10 per cent in pre-market trade.

Published on March 21, 2017 10:12