Even as the tropical Pacific remains ‘primed’ for an El Nino, the contributory warming of the ocean surface has slowed, according to an update.
Nor has the atmospheric response required for El Nino to fully develop been observed, says the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
But that has not apparently forced any revision of the outlook for an El Nino by most models surveyed, the Bureau added.
So the Bureau has persisted with the consensus outlook for a 70 per cent chance of the El Nino developing for year 2014.
In what is of immediate relevance to monsoon prospects for India, the Bureau said that tropical convection (evaporation and cloud building) has moved from the Indian Ocean to western and central Pacific Ocean.
This explains the weakening of the monsoon in India. The convection is co-terminus with the stay of a passing Madden-Julian Oscillation wave in the higher levels of the atmosphere.
HUGE INFLLUENCE
The wave has a huge influence on clouding-building process at the ground level. The wave too has left the Indian Ocean to Southeast Asia/West and Central Pacific Ocean.
This also means that Southeast China Sea/Northwest Pacific is priming itself to hosting tropical cyclone/typhoon activity which India should watch with caution.
Any away-going (towards Taiwan, Koreas) storm in the ocean basin just next to the Bay of Bengal can rob the monsoon of vital moisture in a manner typical of what Cyclone Nanauk in the Arabian Sea did during the onset phase.
But model outlook signals to a minor revival of the monsoon in the Bay of Bengal towards the latter part of this week.