As supercyclone ‘Kyarr’ far out in the Arabian Sea prepares to wind down in strength, closer home, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has sounded a watch for a fresh monsoon depression in the Arabian Sea.
A preparatory low-pressure area had already formed over the Equatorial Indian Ocean to the South of Sri Lanka on Monday morning, the IMD said in an afternoon update.
Rapid intensification
It is forecast to become a ‘well- marked low’ in the first round of intensification as early as Tuesday and concentrate into a depression over Lakshadweep and Maldives in rapid fashion.
In its Monday afternoon outlook, the IMD said that squally weather may wallop the Comorin, Lakshadweep and Maldives area and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea from Tuesday to Thursday.
Sea conditions will be “rough to very rough” (wave heights of 13-20 ft) from Tuesday over these areas. Fishermen out at sea over these areas and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea are advised to return to shore by Tuesday.
They have also been advised not to venture into the sea along and off the South Tamil Nadu and Kerala coasts and into Comorin, Lakshadweep and the Maldives area and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea from Tuesday to Thursday.
An ‘Ockhi’ cousin?
‘Ockhi’ had originated from a low-pressure are over the South-West Bay of Bengal on November 28, 2017. The ‘low’ evolved into a depression and later into a cyclone off the South-East coast of Sri Lanka on November 29, causing damage to property and life in Sri Lanka while passing by.
Ample supply of atmospheric moisture and the warm seas between Sri Lanka and Kanyakumari led ‘Ockhi’ to intensify swiftly into a severe cyclone on November 30 and later into a very severe cyclone.
‘Ockhi’ changed course from Kanyakumari before intensifying and heading for Lakshadweep. The strong cyclone would later impact Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Goa before weakening off the Gujarat coast.
In the instant case, the US agency hinted at an almost similar development, with a likely brewing cyclone off Lakshadweep heading West across the Arabian Sea towards Yemen.
"Both the systems (supercyclone ‘Kyarr’ and the looming depression) are under continuous surveillance and concerned state governments are being informed regularly," the IMD said.
On Monday afternoon, the IMD located supercyclone ‘Kyarr’ about 830 km West-South-West of Mumbai; 1,160 km East-North-East of Salalah (Oman); and 690 km East-South-East of Masirah (Oman).
It is very likely to move West-North-West till Wednesday, and, in the first signal of shifting of track, could head West-South-West and move towards the Gulf of Aden off the South Oman-Yemen coasts during the subsequent three days.
It is very likely to maintain the intensity of a supercyclone till Monday evening and weaken gradually thereafter.
The official track and intensity forecast as indicated by the IMD is as follows: