Even during the height of the Mandal Commission agitations in the early 1990s, Hindutva had relegated caste politics to the background in Gujarat, leading to the rise of saffron forces in the State. During Narendra Modi’s chief ministership (2001-14), the BJP gradually hid Hindutva under its new carpet that went by the name vikas (development).
But now, for the first time since 1995, the BJP’s vikas plank, is being put to a serious test. The saffron party has been forced to go back to the drawing board and rework caste arithmetic. The last caste-based elections were won by the Congress in 1985, after the party’s Kshatriya-Harijan-Adivasi-Muslim (KHAM) formulation gave it unprecedented victory in 149 of 182 Assembly constituencies. Only a few months ago, the BJP looked set to break that record.
However, a combination of factors, including a resurgent Congress,
In this churning, the OBCs, who comprise nearly 44 per cent of total votes, have suddenly gained in ticket distribution. The BJP has fielded 57 OBC candidates, 10 more than in 2012, while the Congress has fielded 65, as against 57 in 2012. But women have suffered the most. While the BJP has nominated 12 women candidates, the Congress has fielded 10. In 2012, they had fielded 18 and 13 candidates, and 12 and four of them, respectively, won.
But, caste-based allotment of tickets by the Congress has created problems for many of its promising candidates, triggering infighting in local units already depleted of footsoldiers due to decades of being out of power.
The BJP, which was wont to change around half its candidates in the past elections to fight local anti-incumbency, has also been forced to repeat 82, out of the 122 candidates who won in 2012. The Congress has retained 37 out of the 57 candidates who won in 2012; 14 of these winners, led by former CM Shankersinh Vaghela, had either quit the party or were expelled during or after the Rajya Sabha election in August this year. This time, the BJP has pitted Patidars against the Congress’ Patidars candidates in 33 Assembly constituencies, and OBC candidates against the GOP’s OBC candidates in 29 seats. Any division of caste-based votes may favour the BJP in many seats due to the virtual absence of Congress workers there as, increasingly, the GOP has transformed into an urban-centric party.
In all, the Congress has fielded 65 OBC candidates, followed by Patidars (47), other forward castes (19), SCs (14), STs (25), and Muslims (6). It has also gifted a seat to Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani, contesting as an Independent candidate, two to the newly-floated Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP), headed by former JD(U) leader Chhotubhai Vasava, and the remaining three to NCP.
On the other hand, the BJP has fielded 57 OBCs, 53 Patidars, 32 from the forward castes, 13 Dalits, and 27 from the tribal communities.
While the BJP has succeeded in curbing ‘rebellion’ by senior party leaders who have been denied tickets, like IK Jadeja, the Congress finds it difficult to keep its flock within. A revolt broke out in the Congress ranks at many places after announcement of the candidate lists and local leaders filed nominations as independents.
In particular, OBC candidates nominated by the Congress in 13 Patidar-dominated constituencies in North Gujarat, from where Alpesh Thakore is contesting, might create trouble for the party. Even Vaghela, who has fielded his own candidates on the Jan Vikalpa Party (JVP) platform, has said that majority of Patidars would rather vote for BJP than the Congress!