As the hyperactive weather over Tamil Nadu relents, a fresh low- pressure area is likely to form over the far-off South Andaman Sea by Tuesday and move to the West-North-West but away from its coast.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already hinted that it might go on to become a depression (with wind gusts reaching cyclonic speeds at 70 km/hr) over Central and adjoining and South-East Bay of Bengal on Wednesday.
The brewing storm will bring isolated heavy rainfall over Andaman & Nicobar Islands from Tuesday to Thursday and isolated very heavy rainfall on Wednesday. Rainfall over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha may escalate from Friday night.
Projected landfall site
Numerical weather predictions from the IMD suggest the storm would move towards North Andhra Pradesh coast for a landfall before being dragged away by an invading western disturbance from the opposite side towards the Odisha and West Bengal coasts. Hence the rainfall outlook for North Andhra Pradesh and the Odisha coasts.
In fact, the inbound western disturbance was spotted taking a deep dive to the South of Iran on Monday morning and is expected to start affecting North-West and adjoining Central India from Tuesday night. Embedded westerlies are forecast to interact with prevailing low-level easterlies causing high moisture incursion.
Inbound western disturbance
This will result in scattered to fairly widespread rain/thunderstorms over Gujarat, North Maharashtra and adjoining areas of South-West Madhya Pradesh and South Rajasthan from Tuesday to Thursday with peak rainfall activity on Wednesday.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall has been predicted for Gujarat on Wednesday and isolated heavy rainfall over East Gujarat on Thursday in tandem with the movement of the western disturbance to the East. This will guide it further East for the expected tryst with the Bay of Bengal storm. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over north Konkan on Wednesday.
Isolated to scattered rainfall accompanied with thunderstorms and lightning is likely over West Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh on Wednesday and Thursday with maximum activity on Thursday in what looks like another round of unseasonal rain spell for this part of North-West India.
Rain for part of North-West
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall and snowfall accompanied with isolated thunderstorms and lightning is also forecast over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh during these days with peak activity on Thursday.
Meanwhile to the South, a cyclonic circulation lies over Comorin and adjoining Sri Lanka coasts and is still able to pick up strong northeasterly winds over Tamil Nadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts. The circulation is likely to emerge in the Arabian Sea on Monday and move farther out in the seas and away from India’s coast.
Light to moderate fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, Mahe and Lakshadweep area and scattered to fairly widespread over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema during next two days as the circulation negotiates the Comorin and Lakshadweep seas, and significantly decrease thereafter.