A US Climate Prediction Centre forecast suggests that the moderate to heavy monsoon conditions would prevail over most parts of the country until the month-end.
The latest spell, now almost a week old, is being mainly attributed to the influence of erstwhile typhoon Doksuri that rammed into the Vietnamese coast the other day.
Westward tracking storms or typhoons in the North-West Pacific/South China Sea have always had a booster impact on a prevailing monsoon over India.
This is translated into motion by a remnant ('pulse') from the storm that continues to travel in the same direction as the typhoon after it breaks up over an intermediate coast (Vietnam, in this case).
This remnant has apparently landed in the Bay of Bengal as per satellite images this morning, and will now anchor accelerated monsoon conditions over India during the next fortnight.
In the process, withdrawal of the monsoon, which should have come into effect from Rajasthan first, has proved a non-starter, by all available indications.
Especially so since India Met Department (IMD) seems to have joined international forecasters in a watch for a follow-up rain-bearing circulation in the Bay around September 27.
FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM?
A US weather tracker sees the first circulation/low-pressure area in the Bay during this week and sloshing its way across Central and North-West India towards Gujarat/South-West Rajasthan.
It has forecast possibility of heavy rain over Jammu & Kashmir, adjoining North-West Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh in the process.
Heavy rain has also been forecast for entire South Peninsula during this week, especially along the West Coast over Mumbai-Konkan, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
During the weeks that follow rains might relent over Central India but hold heavy over the South Peninsula and North-West India (Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana-Chandgarh-Delhi, Uttar Pradesh).
This could also imply that the South-West monsoon may spill over into October, taking due care of the deficit it had left behind during the initial three months of its run over the country.