Uttar Pradesh remains a cliffhanger of a contest, with debutant Aam Aadmi Party engaging the established parties in a keen contest in Punjab, if pollsters are to be believed. In Manipur, Goa and Uttarakhand, most opinion polls so far seem to favour the BJP. Two of the latest opinion polls in Uttar Pradesh, by Times Now-VMR and ABP News-Lokniti, have thrown up contradictory results. The common factor was that both the polls showed the BJP and the SP-Congress alliance to be the major contestants, while predicting the BSP to slide to the third position.
The Times Now-VMR poll shows a clear majority, albeit a wafer thin one, for the BJP in the 403-member Assembly. This poll gives the BJP 202 seats with a vote share of 34 per cent. It predicted 147 seats and 31 per cent vote share for the SP-Congress alliance, while the BSP was at the third position with 47 seats and 24 per cent vote share.
The ABP News-Lokniti survey showed a surge for the SP-Congress alliance with 187-197 seats and a vote share of 35 per cent. This poll showed the BJP retaining 118-128 seats with 29 per cent vote share. The BSP, the survey said, will get 76-86 seats and 23 per cent of the vote share.
Two earlier polls, by VDP Associates and The Week-Hansa Research, showed similar contradictions, with the former predicting a clear majority for the BJP at 207 seats and the latter showing a close contest with the BJP holding on to 192-196 seats and the SP-Congress alliance closely following with 178-182 seats.
Significantly, while the BJP remained among the top two contenders in all these polls, it seemed to have taken a steep fall from its Lok Sabha perch where it got as many as 71 seats and a staggering vote share of 42.63 per cent. The Times Now-VMR poll showed the BJP’s vote share to be 34 per cent, a fall of 8.63 per cent. According to the ABP News survey, there is a 13.63 per cent swing away from the BJP.
In Bihar, 5.46 per cent swing away from the BJP had caused heavy losses to the party in the Assembly elections. The BJP had secured 29.86 per cent vote share in Bihar during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, while in the Bihar Assembly elections, its vote share was 24.4 per cent. The BJP remained the party with the highest vote share, but it lost out to the Mahagathbandhan whose combined vote ousted the BJP from Bihar.
In Punjab, the latest survey by VDP Associates presented a complete sweep for the AAP, while two other surveys — by India Today-Axis and ABP News-Lokniti — gave contradictory predictions. The ABP News survey predicted the ruling SAD-BJP alliance inching towards a victory with 50-58 seats in the 117-member Assembly, while the India Today poll gave the State to the Congress by predicting 56-62 seats to the Amarinder Singh-led party.
But VDP Associates predicted a sweep for AAP with an impressive 35 per cent vote share and 62 seats, while the Congress remained at 44 seats with 33 per cent vote share. The SAD-BJP alliance was shown to have been routed in the poll with just seven seats, although it cornered 26 per cent vote share.
In Uttarakhand, only a poll by the local Uttarakhand Post was giving the ruling Congress a victory with 36 seats in the 71-member Assembly. The rest predicted a clear majority for the BJP in the hill State.
In Manipur, both the polls showed the ruling Congress to be losing; while in Goa, the ruling BJP was shown to be staging a comeback.