Next week, when Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina visits Delhi, a host of issues will be on the table.
The discussion may be fruitful on issues such as energy, trade and investment. Security will feature prominently and Bangladesh will press for withdrawal of anti-dumping duties on its jute products.
Restrictions were imposed on Bangladeshi imports last year. Given the legal framework, outright waiver would not be possible. However, efforts may be intensified for review with stronger Bangladeshi representation.
However, at least one issue, Teesta water-sharing, that has been hanging fire for too long will likely remain unresolved once again with Prime Minister Narendra Modi underlining his determination to maintain status quo till 2019, when both the countries will be in election mode.
Apparently, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has been the only hurdle in entering the treaty since 2011.
She had shown some interest in the deal in exchange of a development package for North Bengal in 2015. India finally removed all hurdles for implementation of the Land Boundary Agreement.
During a visit to Dhaka the same year, she again hinted at her willingness to resolve the issue. “Keep faith on me,” she had told Hasina.
But, things changed in 2016 as Banerjee used every opportunity to oppose Modi; apparently to project her as a political alternative. The aspiration suffered a major setback in the recent phase of Assembly elections.
Banerjee is now playing cards close to her chest. The Modi government is also cautious not to give her opportunity to create any controversy.
Given the stress on inclusive federalism, the Modi government will not repeat the mistakes of the Manmohan Singh government which was embarrassed by Banerjee’s last-minute pullout in 2011.
As on Thursday, the Centre hasn’t issued any invitation to Banerjee for meeting Hasina. Sources suggest that the Centre may invite her along with four more border state Chief Ministers to avert a political embarrassment.
Fight for what?While India’s domestic issues are coming in the way of resolving Teesta pact, it is questionable if the pact is going to bring any major difference in Bangladesh’s fortunes. According to a paper (2012) by TA Khan, member of the Joint River Commission from Bangladesh between 2000 and 2006, Teesta carries barely 4000-5000 cusecs water in lean season at Gajoldoba barrage – before entering Bangladesh, which has put up a second barrage 8-10 km downstream.
Both the barrages were constructed for supplementary irrigation in Kharif (monsoon) season, with capacities to withdraw or 15,000 cusecs and 10,000 cusecs respectively. Both the countries now want to use the barrages for lean season and ending up in a conflict, which may be politically relevant but unlikely to address the basic issues.
A water-sharing pact is due since 1972. In July 1983, both the countries entered into a short-term ad-hoc agreement offering 39 per cent share to India, 36 per cent to Bangladesh and 25 per cent as river discharge.
The ad-hoc agreement expired in 1985 without any resolution on the firm pact. Since then, the two countries have failed to reach a settlement.
Khan says Bangladesh receives barely a few hundred cusecs water in the lean season while the West Bengal government that operates the Gajoldoba barrage insists that it gives Bangladesh due share.
The draft agreement prepared in 2011 wasn’t made public by either Bangladesh or India. Unofficially, it offers India 45 per cent, Bangladesh 35 per cent and 20 per cent left to the river.
Sheikh Rokon, Secretary General of Riverine People, a Dhaka-based civil society group insists that the entering pact is important to ensure Bangladesh’s rights as a co-riparian. Rokon insists on equitable share on the benefits from the river rather than merely water sharing. “In the long run both the barrages should be decommissioned,” he said.