The glow of President Barack Obama’s second term didn’t last long.
Obama has called for 2014 to be “a year of action” in Washington, but with key Congressional elections in November looming as a test for the president, a break from Washington in-fighting seems unlikely.
The president finds himself under attack for the implementation of his signature domestic policy initiative and the botched rollout of his health insurance reforms. He has been barraged with questions about US spying efforts that have damaged relations with key allies.
The November 4 elections make major action on potentially controversial legislation, such as immigration reform, more unlikely as lawmakers focus on their campaigns and seek to avoid alienating voters.
The entire lower House of Representatives will be chosen along with one-third of the Senate. The House is controlled by Republicans, who hold 232 seats to Democrats’ 201 in the 435-member body. Democrats control the 100-member Senate with 53 seats to 45 for Republicans, while two independents caucus with the Democrats.
Mid-term elections are typically good to the party that does not occupy the White House, but both Republicans and Democrats face challenges heading into the by-elections.
A 16-day government shutdown in October damaged Republicans who refused to fund operations and tried to delay implementation of Obama’s health care reforms. Democrats then faced criticism for the rollout of the health reform. In the first month after launch, few Americans could use the wobbling website where they were supposed to buy insurance. Millions of others learned their existing health plans would be cancelled.
At least one contentious issue was taken off the table in December, when Congress passed a compromise budget deal that will avert another damaging shutdown and fund the government for two years. But in February, another fight could unfurl over raising the debt limit so the nation can pay its bills.
Republicans’ challenges
Republicans, who control the House of Representatives, also face divisions within their own centre-right party. The leadership has expressed frustration with members of the conservative Tea Party faction who sought unsuccessfully to stop a budget deal in recent weeks.
Republicans must decide in coming weeks how aggressive to be in their legislative agenda on hot-button topics such as immigration and the continuing rollout of Obama’s signature health insurance reform.
The law has proved vastly unpopular since websites for uninsured Americans to sign up for health plans opened for business in October.
The first Americans will begin receiving care from the plans on January 1, but a series of blunders in the rollout has led to frustration and left Republicans seeing a political opportunity.
“We’re going to continue to try to protect the American people from the consequences” of Obamacare,” Speaker of the House John Boehner vowed before Christmas recess.
Congress ratings at all time low
Senator Harry Reid, the leader of majority Democrats in the upper Senate, is optimistic that problems in the law will be smoothed out by November elections and actually serve to help the centre-left party.
More than half of Americans disapprove of Obama’s job performance, according to pollster Gallup. His health care law appears to be the dominant issue for both supporters and opponents. It is seen both as his greatest achievement and his biggest failure, but more Americans see it as a failure than a success, Gallup said.
Obama in an end of year press conference dismissed polling numbers and rejected suggestions that 2013 was his worst year yet in the White House.
“I took this job to deliver for the American people, and I knew and will continue to know that there are going to be ups and downs on it,” he said, while acknowledging “frustrations” with Congress.
Congress faces an even steeper challenge than Obama.
Congressional approval is at an all time low, averaging just 14 per cent for the year, pollster Gallup reported. The figure is dismal even compared with ratings below 20 per cent for each of the last four years.
That dissatisfaction might not lead to massive changes in Congress.
Uphill task
Most lawmakers represent districts where they are politically safe and analysts point to few true toss—up races.
“Each side faces an uphill slog — fighting inertia as much as anything else,” analyst Charlie Cook writes, while the Washington Post notes a “wave election” like those that saw major shifts in Congress in 2010 and 2006 is unlikely.