The worst kept secret in the country was made public on Monday through the Indian voter's chhapa (stamp). The Congress, which is leading the UPA-2, performed miserably in all the four by-elections, one for the Hisar Lok Sabha constituency, and one Assembly seat each in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Bihar.
The most important was, of course, the Hisar by-election, necessitated by the death of Bhajan Lal, the Haryana Janhit Congress Party MP. His son, Kuldeep Singh Bishnoi, contested the election, where Anna Hazare and his team had campaigned ferociously for the defeat of the Congress. The by-poll saw an impressive turnout of 69 per cent and Mr Bishnoi, who was supported by the BJP, won, but only by a narrow margin of over 6,300 votes over his main rival Mr Ajay Chautala, son of former Haryana Chief Minister, Om Prakash Chautala.
Congress trounced in Hisar
In a neck-and-neck race, Mr Bishnoi polled 38.8 per cent votes against the 38.1 per cent bagged by Mr Chautala. The Congress candidate emerged a poor third, with 16.3 per cent. As the results came out, there was jubilation in several quarters at the trouncing of the Congress in all the four by-polls. The BJP was, of course, the most jubilant and said the countdown had begun and the Congress-led UPA, tainted by so many scams and scandals, had reached the end of the road.
There were many interesting texts and sub-texts to the post-poll rhetoric. While Mr Arvind Kejriwal, the brain behind Team Anna, said they had worked for the defeat of the Congress and not for anyone's victory; Mr Bishnoi said Team Anna was not responsible for his victory. And Congress leader Digvijay Singh maintained that Anna Hazare was backed by the RSS and had worked in favour of the HJC-BJP alliance in Haryana. This has been the Congress line ever since Team Anna took the surprising decision to work against the “corrupt Congress” in Hisar.
Poor show in Assembly bypolls
In the Maharashtra by-poll, the candidate of the NCP, which is in alliance with the Congress, lost to the BJP-Shiv Sena combine. In Andhra Pradesh, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi bagged the Banswada seat which falls in the Telangana region.
But this seat was earlier held by the Telugu Desam Party and not the Congress, which, under Rajasekhar Reddy had swept the Andhra elections — both Lok Sabha and Assembly — in 2009. And, in Bihar, the ruling Janata Dal-United retained the Darounda seat. Here too the main contest was between Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and Lalu Prasad's RJD and the Congress was only an outside player in a State where, at present, it has no leg to stand on.
The most impressive victory in the Assembly by-polls was in Andhra, where emotions are running high on the creation of a Telangana State, and the TRS candidate won by a huge margin of nearly 50,000 votes. Actually, the seat was won by the candidate — Mr P. Srinivasa Reddy — who has left the TDP to join the TRS. With the TDP not putting up a candidate the contest was between the TRS and the Congress.
The news of the dismal performance of the Congress in these elections will be celebrated by the nation on several counts. The greatest irony is that while those outside the UPA, particularly the BJP, which is the main contender for power in the 2014 elections, will naturally celebrate the Congress losses, even those who are not diehard Congress fans but support it as they question the BJP's non-inclusive politics, will welcome this verdict.
That is because for the major part of the UPA-2's term so far, this government has been stumbling and fumbling. Worse, as one scam after another unfolded, right from the Commonwealth Games to the 2G spectrum rip-off, the Mr Clean of this government, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh himself, did not take the firm stance that would have inspired confidence in the people that those who siphoned off hundreds of crores from the public exchequer would be punished.
During the face-off with Anna Hazare and his team during Anna's marathon fast at Delhi's Ramleela grounds, as support, mainly from the vociferous urban middle-classes swelled, the image of the Congress was severely damaged. The crucial question is if this damage is beyond repair.
Disillusionment
In several ways and on several counts It is too early in the day to attribute the defeat of the Congress in these by-elections to the “Anna magic”. Even in 2009, the Congress candidate in Hisar had got the third place; in Bihar, the party is not a major player; in Andhra Pradesh the Banswada seat was held by the TDP and in Maharashtra it was an ally — the NCP — that lost to the BJP-Shiv Sena combine.
But this is certainly an indicator of the disillusion of the Indian voter for India's oldest party. Its top leadership, instead of flinging charges at Anna Hazare and his team for being pro-RSS or pro-BJP, would do well to read the writing on the wall.
The Indian voter is clearly disenchanted with Congress, with corruption, with inefficiency, and above all the lack of direction that seems to have gripped this government. There is a question mark on Congress chief Sonia Gandhi's health allowing her to maintain the punishing schedule necessary to run her party. And with hope diminishing of Rahul Gandhi stepping first into her shoes, and then the prime minister's, as he appears both reluctant and incapable of playing such a role, the party's days in power seem to be numbered. Its biggest hope is the BJP's failure to come out with a single, non-controversial name to lead the next government.
But to live, leave alone gloat, on the opponent's weaknesses, rather than one's own strengths, is to live dangerously.
(Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in )