It’s been called a Marshall Plan for Asia and it could transform the region, and even the world, as we know it. China’s looking to turn large swathes of Asia into construction sites where Chinese steel, concrete and workers will forge a New World Order. Under its $900-billion One-Belt-One-Road (OBOR) initiative it’s already building railways and roads to countries like Laos and it will be at the heart of networks that snake to Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Iran, Mongolia and Turkmenistan. Moving in another direction, its networks will stretch from Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Sri Lanka all the way to Indonesia and the Philippines. The missing part of the Asian jigsaw being put together by China is, of course, India.
This week, leaders of 29 countries, including Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, gathered in Beijing for the two-day OBOR summit. Significantly, Pakistan, which hopes the $46-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) segment of the giant infrastructure plan will bring vitally-needed investment and prosperity, sent a heavyweight delegation led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Pakistan signed 12 agreements at the summit and Sharif lavished praise on China’s global-scale vision, saying: “We stand at the cusp of a geo-economic revolution.” Sharif’s enthusiasm may be tempered slightly by the leaked CPEC’s Long Term Plan drawn up by the China Development Bank. This report, which the Pakistan government dismisses as dated, suggests China would play an almost overwhelming role in Pakistan’s economy, even in agriculture and tourism. At the subcontinent’s other end, Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe hopes OBOR will make his country the Indian Ocean’s hub.
Why OBOR? The Chinese have realised they’ve reached the limits of growth with their export-led model. OBOR can mop up giant quantities of steel, cement and other industrial goods from China’s factories. From India’s standpoint, it doesn’t like China’s leadership role and its plans to build an economic corridor through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. But OBOR would have its plus points. Peaceful co-existence would be an essential prerequisite if India were to be connected via lateral roads from Pakistan. And outfits like the Taliban and Lashkar-e-Taiba would have to be pensioned off in the interests of the 21-century Pax Sinica . Instead of being part of OBOR, India aims to partner the Japanese and launch the Asia-Africa Connectivity Project later this month. This scheme, although far less ambitious and at a nascent stage, seeks to balance China’s influence and focusses on building a ring of ports in a “free” Indian Ocean. India, which harbours its own global ambitions, insists OBOR will be a debt trap for Pakistan and other countries taking part as the Chinese haven’t specified financing terms for the infrastructure projects. India has the advantage of size on its side and may be able to keep its options open. But if only part of OBOR comes to fruition, we’re watching a New World Order take birth. India may well need to embrace OBOR sooner rather than later and seize the opportunities instead of remaining on the outside looking in.