The election results are out and there are no surprises in Gujarat; its people have spoken and anointed Narendra Modi king for the third time. Without any hitches or stumbles, hemming or hawing. It’s a decisive vote, an expected vote. Much more than the people of India, the Congress knew the Gujarat outcome and hence the party high command did not invest much time or effort in canvassing in Gujarat.
Actually, the Congress’s surprise, and comfort, should be that it has managed to get one more seat than it did in 2007.
So relieved is the party at achieving this feat, that earlier when it looked like the BJP would fall short of its 2007 tally of 117, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram was thrilled that the Congress had “contained” Modi!
The Congress has reason to celebrate. Despite the plethora of scams and charges of inefficient and corrupt governance from the UPA regime that it heads, it hasn’t done much worse in Gujarat and wrested Himachal Pradesh from the BJP. But more of HP later.
All about Gujarat
This election was all about Gujarat, with the main question being not if, but how big, Modi could win. While Keshubhai’s Gujarat Parivartan Party has flopped, despite doing as well as in 2007, Modi would be unhappy that he couldn’t make Congress bite the dust. Had he done that, the BJP and the entire Sangh Parivar would have been more worried. As it is, Modi has improved on 2007, and his arrogance graph is bound to climb.
Having said that, a third term in power through such a big win is no mean feat. And let us not kid ourselves, he has won by a near two-thirds majority in India’s most polarised State.
Modi’s BJP — what else can one call it in Gujarat — continues to face a challenge from the 9-per cent Muslim population. But perhaps that has helped him! The sub-text I heard all the time in Ahmedabad this time, from upper and middle-class Gujaratis, was: “Only Modi can make the Mohammedans behave; only he can control them.” This was said matter of fact, and without any apology. Apparently this belief has helped Modi win big in Gujarat; significantly his win was the biggest in 2002, after the Gujarat pogrom, came down slightly in 2007, and has gone up again.
Modi’s moment
Poll pundits and number-crunchers can debate the “hype” about Gujarat’s development, or how inclusive it is, till the cows come home. You can call it smart media-management, a perfect air-brushed image, hype or whatever. The people of Gujarat are happy with Modi raj, and in a democracy that is the ultimate decider of destinies. What Modi has achieved in Gujarat — a third term — Shivraj Singh Chauhan might do in Madhya Pradesh where polls are due next year, but with zero hype. But he won’t get the same glory.
But this is Modi’s moment, and he should be allowed to celebrate it. It’s unfair to raise immediate questions of his acceptance by the BJP’s allies, or by the party leadership itself, as a prime ministerial candidate in 2014. Gujarat loves him; if the rest of India does too, he will surely have his moment in the sun.
His supporters were anyway celebrating by noon with posters that said: “This is the trailer, watch the film in 2014”, and “CM in 2012, PM in 2014”.
The total rout of Keshubhai’s GPP, a saffron offshoot, clearly establishes Modi as the undisputed saffron king of Gujarat, and a justified claimant to the same role at the national level. It effectively disproves the GPP claim that Saurashtra has been neglected by the Modi regime.
Lesson from Himachal
Coming to Himachal Pradesh, Virbhadra Singh’s win sends out a strong message to the Congress high command and the sycophants within the ruling party. Stop pitching all success on the ruling family and all failure on the lesser flunkeys. Himachal was won by the local Congress leadership, not by Sonia Gandhi or Rahul Gandhi. If the beleaguered Congress has to do reasonably well in the 2014 elections — something that is not within the realm of probability right now — it has to allow local leadership to grow. And not expect every local leader to get a nod from the Gandhi family for every sneeze.
Singh’s victory, without much help from Delhi, has proved that all non-Gandhi family Congressmen are neither lesser leaders nor nincompoops. If regional leaders within the party are allowed autonomy and independence, the state of the Congress would not be what it is in the most important of all States, Uttar Pradesh.
This is the era of not only regionalism but also federalism in Indian politics. Actually both of them go hand in hand. The dismal show of the Congress in the recent UP elections, its inability to improve its seat tally in Gujarat, the BJP’s national leadership’s failure to stem the rot in Karnataka where B.S Yeddyyurappa finally had his way, shows the growing clout of regional politics/parties/leaders.
Despite facing several allegations of corruption from the media, Virbhadra Singh could manage a victory. That should be a pointer to the anti-corruption activists.
Vote for a decisive administrator
But the star of the show is clearly Modi. The BJP has claimed Modi’s victory on the plank of development. Modi’s critics say this development has only benefited the big industrial houses and at the cost of the SME sector as well as the marginalised classes such as the minorities and tribals. But what is undisputed is his decisive model of administration. Modi is seen as an undisputed leader whole writ runs in his party and the government.
To claim Gujarat is free of corruption is to be naïve. The fact remains that with or without oiling palms, your work gets done. Having annihilated all other BJP leaders in Gujarat who mattered — such as Keshubhai or Shankersinh Vaghela — Modi is the only leader and his word is final. This allows speedy decision making and a firm grip over the administrative mechanism. If he is autocratic, so what, it may be argued. Remember what Lee Kuan Yew did to Singapore and Mahathir Mohamad to Malaysia?
And oh, there is that little issue about communalism and refusal to apologise for the 2002 methodical, targeted butchering of Muslims. But then, when people are ridden with larger issues of a bigger roti , ensured or more attractive rozi , better kapda , makaan , etc., who cares for secular credentials? Didn’t the Americans themselves bomb Iraq, without finding a whisper of those scary weapons of mass destruction?
India needs a strong and decisive leader who can take the country forward and meet the aspirations of its billion-plus people. We can always tackle smaller issues such as communalism at a later date!