With speculation rife that the national lockdown is likely to be extended beyond mid-April, President and Managing Director of MG Motor India Rajeev Chaba says the cost of business inactivity in India will end up becoming heftier than the Covid-19 threat.
“We are not producing anything right now, which is the right thing, but cannot afford to do this beyond three or a maximum of four weeks. People will die of hunger and poverty,” cautions Chaba.
Partial lifting
Chaba, however, reiterates that the decision to impose the present lockdown was important to break the chain and flatten the Covid-19 curve. Yet, he adds, the country cannot afford this “prolonged lockdown” beyond 3-4 weeks.
“After four weeks, the deaths due to economic inactivity are going to be much more (than the virus),” says Chaba. In his view, the Centre must think of opening “part of the economy, part of manufacturing etc” to be able to start generating some employment again.
Needless to add, this should be done in a “very carefully selected and partial” way, since everything cannot be removed at one go. “I would think that, especially in manufacturing, they (the Centre) could think of starting plants at 30 or 50 per cent capacity with half the workforce,” he suggests.
This means that gates should be partially thrown open for factories to churn out products and handle employment. “Things have to be carefully balanced now and it is the time to do it,” says Chaba.
Social impact
Extending the lockdown, on the other hand, could result in “huge social consequences”, with people dying of hunger and villages not being able to handle migration inflows. “Social inequalities will spread and there will be panic. It is difficult for me to hazard a guess except that there will be a massive impact,” warns Chaba.
It is this context that he believes end-April is the maximum limit that the country can afford to have the lockdown. Patients with pre-existing diseases (beyond Covid-19) will suffer while doctors are panicking already since they are worried about being infected.
“Can you imagine a country under lockdown for two months and someone is not being able to be operated upon? This will have huge losses in terms of fatalities and it is beyond my thinking how we can survive,” he says.
Even while the number of Covid-19 infections continues to rise by the day, Chaba believes India has a unique business/social equity model which pretty much means that it does not make sense to “copy and paste” the experiences of other countries.
“We are a large nation with massive diversities, which means we need a unique Indian model to cope with the crisis,” says the MG Motor India chief. Simply put, this means that the way the virus threat has been tackled in other countries need not necessarily hold true here.
While making clear that there is no scientific evidence to back his claims of India being different from the rest of the world on Covid-19, Chaba says his logic is based on common sense. “We are hardy people and have experienced lots of crises before,” he adds.
The fact that India is not the best example when it comes to clean air and pollution could actually prove to be its strength since its people are more resistant as a result. “Additionally, we don’t have the habit of drinking ice-cold water and prefer to have it warm or at room temperature,” reasons Chaba.
Virus spread
Whether the ongoing summer heat will be adequate to deter Covid-19 remains to be seen but there is a school of thought which believes that warmer conditions may just help keep it at bay. The key, he says, is to keep the virus confined to a few cities which means greater precautions can be taken to prevent its spread.
“Even if the chain is broken or Covid-19 goes past its peak, the situation should improve in 2-3 months, while leaving a profound impact on society,” says Chaba. The worst case scenario will occur if the lockdown lingers on for 8-10 weeks and car demand totally crashes.
“Even if you then open up the economy for other products, people will not want to buy them. They will be in no mood to do so and we will then end up with a recession,” he cautions.