The cashew market was quiet last week, after two weeks of good activity in all markets, for want of buying support.
Buyers were bidding 5-10 cents lower last week but there was no selling interest at the lower levels, trade sources said. However, some stray business was done for W240 at around $4.45, W320 at around $4.05, SW320 at around $3.80, splits at around $3.40 (f.o.b.), they said.
Meanwhile, some markets paid few cents higher for W240 and W320.
Indian domestic market has been quiet for almost a month and inventories at consuming centres are running low and, hence, activity is expected to pick up in April, Mr Pankaj N. Sampat, a major Mumbai-based dealer, told
Africa arrivals
Raw cashew nut (RCN) market is steady, he said. Benin is at around $1,600, Ghana and Ivory Coast (IVC) at around $1,450, Nigeria at around $1,400 (c&f). Shipments from Nigeria and Benin have started. Shipments from Ghana and Ivory Coast are expected to start soon.
Vietnam scene
Shellers hope that movements of RCN in IVC– and more importantly, shipments to India and Vietnam – will pick up in April and provide relief from the tight supply and high prices. However, unseasonal rains in Vietnam are causing concern, he said. Drying is going to be a problem due to the rains and it will affect kernel quality/yield.
Crop size may also be lower if rains do not stop. Situation needs to be watched closely, he said.
Due to the late crops in India and Vietnam and slow shipments from West Africa, processing in April (and may be even May) will be lower than normal. This could lead to squeeze in kernel supplies in the second quarter unless the off take in first quarter is much lower than normal, Mr Pankaj said.
Trading pattern
For the time being, there seems to be nothing that will change the trading pattern – everyone in the chain will continue to operate for the short term and refrain from taking any large forward positions. “This means, there will be regular bursts of activity followed by some quietness. Each burst will mean a dip or spike in prices, depending on who/what initiates the activity. This pattern will keep the market moving around the current range unless there is some big improvement in RCN flow or there is a big kernel demand”, he said.
A trend change, as discussed earlier, will happen “only if there is a big drop in off take in several markets together or there is a sudden pressure of RCN arrivals (or there is some big external development).
Otherwise, it will take several months for supply-demand balance to be restored and prices to soften from the current levels”, he added.