India Met Department has said in its morning bulletin that the low-pressure area over southeast Arabian Sea has become ‘well-marked'.
This marks the first round of intensification of the system, which is expected to become a depression in the second round by tomorrow.
The Met has not said it yet, but its wind field projections indicate the depression could go on to become a tropical cyclone over the next two to three days.
The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre assessed the location of the system at 775 km in a straight line to the west of Kochi.
It found a ‘massive’ area of low pressure in the sea – as much as 1,480 km in diameter – covering almost entire south and central Arabian Sea.
The system is blessed with a perfect environment for intensification in terms of low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface and good outflow towards the top.
The US Centre said that the storm activity is likely to mature out in the northwestern basin of the Arabian Sea.
Incoming westerly
India Met said that the system would race farther away from India's west coast towards Oman in the Arabian Gulf.
This track is sustained until it reaches within a sniffing distance of the Oman coast by October 29 when in fact the outer bands of the strong cyclone would lash Oman.
But here is exactly where the inevitable happens – a development that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather sees taking place much earlier during the mature phase of the cyclone.
An incoming western disturbance from the opposite direction will stop the cyclone system on its tracks just off the Oman coast.
By October 29, until when India Met projections are available, the cyclone is scooped up entirely by the ‘long arm’ of the westerly system.
Oman or Gujarat?
From here, meteorological protocol would suggest that the cyclone would ride the western disturbance and move to the east.
This could put the Makran and adjoining Karachi coasts, or farther east, the Gujarat coast, as probable areas for landfall of the system.
The European Centre had suggested that the cyclone could likely veer off from west-central Arabian Sea and head straight to the Amreli-Surat belt in Gujarat for a landfall by October 29.
The cyclone would be appropriated by the ‘trunk’ of the advancing western disturbance and flung away to east-northeast over Gujarat coast, it had said.
After landfall, the remnant is shown as tracking north-northeast over mainland India, towards the Uttar Pradesh-Bihar belt.