Heavy rains to lift, global models say emerging hiatus may last longer

Vinson Kurian Updated - May 30, 2025 at 04:45 PM.

European agency indicates monsoon over India may remain quiet next 10-15 days

AI model of European Centre for Medium Term Weather Forecasts sees meaningful rain for next week (in red, accumulated until Saturday) being confined to west coast and parts of North-East India as monsoon goes likely into a hiatus. | Photo Credit: www.meteologix.com/in

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said rainfall for country as a whole may be below normal in the second week of June after the depression over Bangladesh, currently anchoring monsoon flows over India, lets off steam in next few days. Rains may prolong over North-East India, and at random places over mainland into the week beginning Monday.

Very heavy rain for N-E

Very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall may continue over North-Eastern states for another day, while ongoing heavy to very heavy rainfall over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, and ghats of Tamil Nadu may reduce. On Friday, northern limit of monsoon was unchanged along a line linking Mumbai with Ahilyanagar, Adilabad, Bhawanipatna, Puri, Sandhead Island, and Balurghat.

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Hiatus may prolong

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicated on Friday monsoon theatre over India may remain largely quiet for a period of next 10-15 days. Sole exception would be Kerala coast, with a 95 per cent probability of accumulating some rainfall. The probability reduces to 65 per cent for Goa, Karnataka and Rayalaseema, and 35 per cent to peninsular India and east coast.

Western disturbance

Meanwhile, an incoming western disturbance located over Karachi in Pakistan and along track towards Bhakasar, Bhinmal, Bhilwara and Kota in Rajasthan will trigger non-monsoonal rainfall, thunderstorms and gusty winds likely over North-West India for next 4-5 days. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning are likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh; Himachal Pradesh; Uttarakhand; Punjab; Haryana, Chandigarh and Delh, the IMD said.

Thunder squalls lines

Thunder squalls wind speed reaching 50-60 km/hr gusting to 70 km/hr are likely over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand for two more days. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh on Saturday; and over Himachal Pradesh for two days. Dust storms are likely over West Rajasthan for two more days from Monday. 

Published on May 30, 2025 05:08

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