As expected, a low-pressure area has sprung up over the Gulf of Thailand and adjoining Andaman Sea, which is forecast to grow as a cyclone (to be called ‘Hudhud’) soon.
India Met Department traced the ‘low’ over the Tenasserim coast (south-east Myanmar and adjoining Thailand).
It is expected to rapidly concentrate into a monsoon depression by Tuesday.
It would intensify into a tropical cyclone, the first of the North-East monsoon season 2014, and would race towards the east coast of India.
Squally winds speeding up to between 60- to 70 km/hr have been warned of around the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Tuesday.
Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over south interior Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during the same period.
Almost similar forecast is valid for the next day as the depression ramps up into a tropical cyclone.
Meanwhile, the withdrawal process of the southwest monsoon from land has acquired a sense of urgency as it braces to cover more parts of peninsular India.
Monsoon withdrawalThe south-west monsoon has to retire fully from land before the Met can declare the onset of successor northeast monsoon over the peninsula.
Both are expected to happen simultaneously, given the build-up of conditions over the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
Profile of wind pattern projected by the Met showed the ‘low’ sitting pretty in an environment of easterly flows from the Gulf of Thailand into the Andaman Sea/south-east Bay.
The Met merely joined peer international models to project the formation of the cyclone, which may barrel in towards Andhra Pradesh coast by October 12.
The build-up is similar to that of Super Cyclone Phailin that hit the same coast last year and tracked the same direction after having taken birth in the same location.
Transition phaseThe period of monsoon transition from southwest to northeast in October is otherwise even known to create ideal conditions for cyclones to take shape in the Bay of Bengal.
Twin Pacific typhoons Phanfone and successor Vongfong have already surfed up the northwest Pacific basin and ‘excited’ the neighbouring South China Sea.
Phanfone has hit Japan, and Vongfong appears to follow a similar track, which is farther and away from South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
Southeasterly to easterly flows associated with these storms and warming up of the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal ensured ideal conditions for storm development in these basins.