Global rice production is projected to be lower by a little over two per cent this marketing season (September 2022-August 2023) with India, Pakistan, Nigeria and Sri Lanka paddy output being lower, two global organisations have said. “... world rice production in 2022-23 is now forecast at 512.6 million tonnes (milled basis), 2.4 per cent below the 2021 all-time peak, but still is an overall average crop,” FAO’s ‘Cereal demand and supply brief’ said. Last season, the production was 525.1 million tonnes (mt).
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects global production at 503.69 mt this season against 515.09 mt last season. The USDA has pegged India’s production at a three-year low of 124 mt this season against a record 130.29 mt last season.
Pak, China crops hit
In addition, Pakistan’s production at 6.6 mt is likely to be the lowest in a decade as floods had affected the yield in the Sindh region.
The USDA predicted China’s rice production at 147 mt (148.99 mt a year ago). Among other major producers, Vietnam’s output is seen at 45.24 mt (45.01 mt), Thailand’s at 20.1 mt (19.88 mt) and Indonesia’s at 34.6 mt (34.4 mt).
On Indonesia, the FAO said, “As for rice, production expectations have improved for Indonesia since October, following official indications of a somewhat larger expansion in area under paddy than previously anticipated…”
The USDA said the global outlook for rice trade “is for lower supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks…” While it projected global consumption at 517.77 mt (519.91 mt), it predicted exports at 52.96 mt (55.03 mt).
Ending stocks
Supplies are likely to be 686.8 mt, on lower opening stocks in India and lower output in Pakistan, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka. India’s stocks are lower following higher exports and domestic consumption in 2021-22, it said.
The FAO estimated rice supplies at 709.5 mt (718.8 mt), consumption at 518.3 mt (521.9 mt) and exports at 52.9 mt (53.8 mt).
While the FAO has pegged the ending stocks at 193.4 mt (196.9 mt), the USDA has projected them at 169.02 mt (183.10 mt).
Record high production
On the other hand, both organisations have forecast higher wheat production during the current season. The FAO has pegged the output of the cereal at 783.8 mt (779.3 mt), while the USDA projects it at 782.67 mt (779.44 mt). “...global wheat production is now forecast at 783.8 million tonnes in 2022, still 0.6 per cent (4.5 million tonnes) above the 2021 outturn and an all-time high,” the FAO said. “... larger production in Australia, Kazakhstan, and the UK more than offsets declines in Argentina and the EU,” the USDA said.
FAO sees wheat consumption at 775 mt (779.3 mt), trade at 193.7 mt (195.7 mt) and ending stocks at 299.6 mt (293.7 mt). The USDA has pegged consumption at 791.17 mt (793.78 mt), trade at 206.56 mt (205.08) and ending stocks at 267.82 mt (276.31 mt).
Overall, the FAO sees the global cereal market production lower by 1.9 per cent at 2.76 billion tonnes this season against 2.81 billion tonnes a year ago. Supply, consumption, trade and ending stocks are projected lower. The USDA has also come out with a similar production, though its figures vary a little.