The International Grains Council (IGC) has further lowered its global wheat production forecast for 2012-13 to 671 million tonnes (MT) due to adverse weather conditions in Europe, Russia and Morocco.
In April, the London-based organisation had pegged the global wheat output at 676 MT for 2012-13. The revised forecast is lower than 695 MT output 2011—12.
“Global crop prospects for 2012—13 remained mostly favourable during May, but adverse conditions lowered harvest expectations in the EU, Russia and Morocco, contributing to a 5 mt cut in the world production forecast, to 671 MT,” IGC has said in its latest Grains Report.
Similarly, world wheat consumption forecast has been lowered to 681 MT in 2012—13 from 688 MT last year.
China, with more than 100—MT output, is the world’s largest wheat producer. India is the world’s second-biggest producer and is estimated to harvest 90.23 MT in 2011—12, as per the government data.
According to the IGC report, global trade in wheat is expected to see a dip by 7.4 MT to 136 MT, from record 143 MT in 2011—12.
The export surplus wheat is expected to be lower in Europe and Argentina, but increased production and reduced competition will likely boost sales by the US, the report said.
The carryover stocks at the end of 2012-13 are seen lower by 15 mt than last time year, at 191 MT.
With respect to global maize production, the global body has, however, raised production estimates by more than five per cent to a record 913 MT in 2012-13. Last year, production had stood at 866 MT.