India’s move to suspend the Indus Water Treaty will affect Pakistan in at least four ways, including its agricultural production during the key south-west monsoon period.
According to New Delhi-based trade analyst S Chandrasekaran, the decision to suspend the treaty is a “master stroke” as reservoirs on the Indus River are filled to less than 30 per cent of their capacity.
Currently, the Tarbela dam in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province has only 30 feet of water. “The dam had only 9 feet of water a month ago above the dead storage level. Pakistan has filled 21 feet with water from the Mangla dam in the upper region to ensure the canals do not parch. Rains in the north-western part of the sub-continent will start only in the last week of June or the first week of July. India’s decision at this point could affect Pakistan’s agriculture,” said the analyst.
Retain water till Sept
Glaciers in the Himalayas will begin to melt from around May 15. The reservoir storage capacity distribution between glacier water and rain in India is 59:41. “India can retain water in its reservoirs up to at least September and beyond without releasing to Pakistan,” said a source.
The trade analyst said this will affect Pakistan’s cotton and rice production during the kharif season. Cotton sowing begins from around April 15 in Pakistan’s Punjab province. The crop will need water to germinate and grow. Lack of water will affect cotton production,” he said. Pakistan produces about 70 lakh bales (170 kg) of cotton annually. This could impact its already cotton-starved textile industry.
It is the production of rice that could be affected more badly because of India’s decision. Pakistan produces around 10 million tonnes of rice annually. “Sowing of paddy begins around May 15. States such as Punjab and Sindh require irrigation. These regions are dependent on canal water. Barring big farmers who have borewells, the others could be affected,” Chandrasekaran said.
India suspends Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan | What it means & why it matters
Basmati advantage
India will likely enjoy an advantage in the Basmati rice market as Pakistan’s basmati crop could be affected. On the other hand, the AAP government in Punjab has permitted farmers to begin sowing paddy from May 15. This will provide a gap between growing paddy and wheat and help control stubble burning. In Pakistan, too, a similar trend is followed.
“Punjab farmers have been tapping into groundwater given the Indus Water Treaty. The government’s decision on Wednesday evening will now ensure that Punjab farmers will get more water through canal irrigation,” he said.
The second issue that will affect Pakistan is that the storage in its hydel reservoirs is low. “This will require Pakistan to import coal. Given Pakistan’s poor foreign exchange situation, its resources will be stretched,” the sources said. Most cities could face power shortage.
Inte-State dispute
The third aspect that will affect Islamabad is that its Punjab and Sindh provinces are at loggerheads over the sharing of water. Pakistan’s Punjab province is constructing two reservoirs. India’s decision to suspend the Indus treaty will further aggravate the disputes between these two provinces in Pakistan.
The fourth problem for Pakistan is that it could face a drinking water shortage. Islamabad faces at least 30 per cent water shortage. Canals are the drinking water sources for most cities. The suspension of Treat by India will lead to the worsening of the situation.
Chandrasekaran, who has authored “Basmati Rice: The Natural History Geographical Indication”, said these developments could have a far-reaching impact on Pakistan.
In the average 168 million acre feet (MAF) of water flow, Pakistan’s share is 133 MAF. Pakistan experts claim that India does not have the capacity to hold back all the water that will come from the melting of the glacier and hence Islamabad may not be hit in the near-term.
However, a press release issued on March 26 by the Pakistan Indus River System Authority said the winter snowfall in the catchment areas of Indus and Jhelum was 31 per cent lower this year at 26.8 inches against the normal 49.7 inches. Pakistan needs good storage until September 30, 2025, for its kharif crops. Not just that, India’s move could affect its rabi production too.