India Meteorological Department (IMD) has sounded a tropical cyclone alert over the East-Central Bay of Bengal by Sunday as a low-pressure area that formed over the South Andaman Sea undergoes rapid intensification. The ‘low’ is predicted to witness calibrated strengthening as a depression by Saturday evening before turning into a full-fledged cyclone in the subsequent two days.
The IMD has said that the cyclone will head for the East Coast likely making a landfall over the north Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coasts as early as Tuesday, a day after it achieves tropical cyclone status. The swift transformation and intensification of the system is in line with the pattern witnessed in the Bay of Bengal in recent years aided by the ‘boiling hot’ waters reaching as high as 32 degrees Celsius in temperature, among the warmest seas on the face of the planet.
Heavy rain, high winds
On Friday, heavy to very heavy rainfall was forecast over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and heavy over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Kerala and Mahe. Squally wind (40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph) were forecast over the South Andaman Sea, adjoining South-East Bay and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. The sea condition was expected to be ‘rough to very rough’ (wave heights of 8-13 ft) over the Andaman Sea and adjoining South-East Bay and fishermen were advised not to venture here.
Outlook for Saturday said thunder squalls accompanied with lightning/gusty winds (speed 50-60 kmph) may roam the Andaman & Nicobar Islands; with lightning/gusty winds (speed 30-40 kmph) over Kerala and Mahe; and with lightning over Chhattisgarh, hills of West Bengal and Sikkim; Odisha; Assam, Meghalaya, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
Warning to fishermen
Heavy to very heavy rainfall may lash the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Squally winds (45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph) may prevail over the Islands, the Andaman Sea and the adjoining South-East and East-Central Bay. Sea condition may range from ‘rough to very rough’ over the Andaman Sea and adjoining South-East Bay. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.
Earlier, a number of weather models, including the IMD’s, had hinted that the ‘low’ may intensify further, even at the expense of a rival brewing just below the Equator and sharing the same flows but likely diving deeper South and moving farther away. The brewing cyclone is expected to consolidate the flow of monsoon-friendly south-westerlies in the Bay.
Meanwhile, over North-West India, heat wave conditions may return to isolated pockets of Rajasthan for three days from tomorrow (Saturday), and to south Haryana, Delhi, south-west Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha on Sunday and Monday, the IMD said on Friday morning.
Converging monsoon flows
Weather watchers point out that the feverish activity building in the seas would help consolidate the south-westerly monsoon flows over the Bay, likely precipitating an early onset over South Myanmar, followed by the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, the farthest outpost in the Indian territorial waters.
To farther East and across the Bay, Myanmar expects the monsoon onset at least a week earlier than normal this year. Back home, Kerala and parts of Tamil Nadu have been witnessing pre-monsoon thunderstorm activity consistently over the past week or so. This, along with the spread of clouds over the Bay, point to the rollout of the pre-monsoon rain peak, a harbinger of the South-West monsoon.
Western disturbances
Meanwhile, a western disturbance located over east Uttar Pradesh on Friday afternoon and a successor crossing in from south Afghanistan into Central Pakistan and eventually headed to North-West India along with a maze of cyclonic circulations and troughs/discontinuities over land promise to keep the weather busy over North-West India, Central India, East India, and Peninsular India before the next spell of hot conditions descend over the northern half of the country/