Often, we hear people comparing predictions of meteorologists to those made by astrologers.
A few weeks ago, an astrologer surprised viewers on a television channel with his comments that at least 70 per cent of the horoscope predictions are likely to be wrong. Be that as it may. Monsoon predictions, too, seem to be heading that way.
In the last few years, the meteorologists seem to have got it wrong more often than not. They went wrong in 2009 when the country experienced one of its worst monsoons. Last year too, few had an inkling of the problems that cropped up in June and July due to the tardy progress of monsoon.
This year, the Met Department would like us to believe that it would be a normal monsoon. But even before the official announcement could be made, Food Minister K.V. Thomas let the cat out of the bag by saying that monsoon will be deficient in some parts of South India, which is already reeling under severe drought. The Meteorological Department has refused to comment on the Minister’s statement, though.
La Nina hopes
The problem with the United Progressive Alliance Government is that it has often been economical with the truth. But there is still hope from the Japanese outlook that the cool water effect La Nina could aid monsoon.
If monsoon turns out to be mixed as is feared, then it could hit the economic growth of the country. Despite the Government putting up a brave face, the stark reality of last year’s failure of the North-East monsoon that benefits the South is beginning to bite.
Fast moving consumer goods and white goods manufacturers are talking of dropping sales in rural India. This can be directly linked to poor agricultural growth last year. A below four per cent growth in agriculture does not augur well for a country that has more cash to spend with a teeming teenage population.
A monsoon that could be good only in parts will spell problems – food supply and economic growth including. The effect will be widespread.
What has not been taken into account is that the drought in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Maharashtra and parts of Karnataka has left the soil bereft of moisture. That is a problem that needs urgent attention.
If indeed monsoon turns out to be deficient in the South, then we could also face the worst case scenario of growers selling their lands to realty sharks.
Agricultural lands are giving way to residential projects in many parts of the South and the rising labour costs are only aiding the trend.
We can only hope that monsoon will turn out to be normal so that we would not be left facing a slew of problems starting from higher prices for food.
On its part, the Government needs to have mechanisms ready to face any weather-related problems.