It is not fair to jump to conclusions on the monsoon performance since its manifestation is judged best from the ground-up rather than by numbers alone, asserts KJ Ramesh, Director-General, India Meterological Department (IMD).
Reservoir levels and rain-fed sowing/crop acreages, combined with rainfall distribution, will present a true and holistic picture about the season, Ramesh told BusinessLine on the phone from New Delhi.
Acreage up
Data of the Ministry of Agriculture suggest overall acreage during this Kharif is higher by 2.6 per cent compared with the highest- ever acreage/record food production achieved in year 2017.
Reservoir levels monitored by the Central Water Commission stand around 5 per cent higher than the 10-year mean storage and 17 per cent higher than the storage for the corresponding period in 2017.
A preliminary scientific analysis reveals that the sea-surface conditions over the Equatorial Pacific (El Nino conditions) did not have any adverse effect on the performance of monsoon rainfall.
The initial outlook that the country will experience a third successive year of well-distributed rains has turned out to be true with the good final figures of overall crop acreages and reservoir storage, Ramesh said.
Adequate availability of moisture as seen from the trend of its distribution, will help the Rabi crops. The above-normal reservoir storages will also ensure good Rabi acreage in 2018-19.
Minutes of the Crop Weather Watch Group on Drought Management held through a video conference on September 19 showed crop stress only in parts of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan.
Good distribution
Ramesh attributed the overall monsoon deficiency of 9 per cent to a rare, large shortage (24 per cent) over North-East India. Only four years during the period 1901-2017 (1992, 2005, 2009 and 2013) saw deficiency cross 20 per cent.
Also, the usually significant flooding events were fewer here this time. If the region had received normal rainfall, the all-India rainfall would be 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), very near to the forecast of 97 per cent.
An analysis reveals that distribution of rainfall has otherwise been extremely good across the country barring the East and North- East. Agricultural operations, of overall kharif crop acreage, has also looked up.
As predicted, the rainfall distribution was satisfactory and well-distributed over North-West India, Central India and the South Peninsula, with only marginal rainfall deficiency of 2 per cent, 7 per cent, and 2 per cent respectively.
Despite the long-range forecast being slightly lower than the model error margin, the IMD had predicted a high probability of 28 per cent for below-normal rainfall, above the climatological probability of 17 per cent.
The long-range forecast for North-West India, Central India and the South Peninsula was however accurate, Ramesh said. The 2018 season was characterised by large day-to-day variability within the season.