The monsoon has resumed its journey after a day’s break as it advanced on Friday into remaining parts of Bihar; East Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh; some parts of West Uttar Pradesh and Ladakh; most parts of Uttarakhand; and many parts of Himachal Pradesh. Its northern limit was draped across Jaipur, Agra, Rampur, Dehradun, Shimla and Manali.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said it may cover more parts of Rajasthan and Jammu and Kashmir; remaining West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh; and more parts of Ladakh during next two days. It may run through remaining parts of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, and enter Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi during subsequent two days.
Tapers in South, Central India
This phase also coincides with tapering of above-normal rainfall activity over South Peninsula and Central India where rainfall would be normal during the rest of June. A Climate Forecast System (CFS) outlook suggested above-normal rainfall would instead be centered at least until July 10 over contiguous East and North-East India, North-West India and parts of West India.
The first 10 days of July are likely to witness concentrated heavy to very heavy rainfall over south-west Rajasthan, surrounded by a large area of above-normal rainfall over Gujarat; rest of Rajasthan; Punjab; Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh; and West Uttar Pradesh, while fresh activity begins over extreme South Peninsula from Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea sides one after the other.
Fresh ‘low’ in a week?
On Friday, the monsoon-driving well-marked low-pressure area over north-east Jharkhand weakened into a low-pressure area and lay over south Bihar. It is likely to move slowly north-westwards and weaken gradually by Saturday. To the west, an upper air cyclonic circulation from a predecessor ‘low’ persisted over north-east Rajasthan. Numerical predictions persisted with their outlook for a fresh low-pressure area forming over Odisha-West Bengal coasts before June is out.
Monsoon trough
An east-west trough extending from north-west Rajasthan to Meghalaya across the cyclonic circulation over north-east Rajasthan, south Uttar Pradesh, and the low-pressure area over south Bihar, and considered a precursor to all-important monsoon trough, persisted on Friday. The offshore trough from north Konkan coast to north Kerala coast has, however, weakened.
Heavy in East India
The 24 hours ending on Friday morning saw extremely heavy rain being at isolated places over plains West Bengal, Jharkhand and Madhya Maharashtra. Heavy to very heavy rain lashed Arunachal Pradesh and elsewhere over West Bengal, Jharkhand, East Uttar Pradesh, east Gujarat; Konkan and Goa; and Madhya Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh, while it was heavy over Assam and Meghalaya; Odisha; West Uttar Pradesh; Himachal Pradesh; East Rajasthan; West Madhya Pradesh; and East Madhya Pradesh.
Rain deficit down
This helped bring down rain deficit for country as a whole by six per cent to -5 per cent on Thursday, though South Peninsula fell back into individual deficit of -3 per cent. All three homogenous geographical regions made gains with East and North-East India reducing deficit to -15 per cent, while Central India (+3 per cent) and North-West India (+1 per cent) turned to ‘normal.’