The monsoon, now in an undeclared lull phase except in east India, may not have the best of starts in July, too.
Seasonal rains have not been to resume in full strength after the latest tropical storm, ‘Talim,’ in the South China Sea interfered with its progress.
The monsoon is most likely running into almost a similar situation as it enters the crucial month of July.
Rains during this month are vitally important in terms of overall performance of the monsoon, which has already run up deficit after a late and sluggish start.
On the positive side, global forecasts favour the formation of a long-awaited low-pressure area around the ‘head’ Bay of Bengal by mid-week this week.
But they are also apprehensive that a counterpart low-pressure area rearing its head in the South China Sea across the territorial waters could steal its thunder.
Storm genesis
Some of the forecasts indicate that a parent trough of low-pressure area has taken shape already off the Philippines, a breeding ground for storms.
It would gradually develop as a storm, and enter South Chine Sea. This would be the fifth rogue weather system in the away-seas that would bother the monsoon here. Thus, part of the southwesterly monsoon flows getting directed into the Bay ‘low’ could likely get pulled into South China Sea too.
This could compromise the strength of the Bay ‘low’ and affect its capacity to power the monsoon into the hinterland.
Saving grace
The saving grace this time around is the forecast direction of movement for the South China Sea ‘low.’ All three preceding storms in the South China Sea/northwest Pacific headed east-northeast, which is prejudicial with respect to prospects for the monsoon.
But here, early forecasts a movement to the opposite i.e. north and then west-northwest, which would take the system for a landfall over southeast China.
‘Pulses’ sent by these storms have in turn intensified into cyclonic circulations and low-pressure areas and aided the southeasterly monsoon flows from the Bay.
But evolving conditions need to be watched closely before drawing definite conclusions in the instant case.