Increase in cloudiness and rainfall during the next seven days will drive the Indian monsoon further north and spread it over much of the subcontinent, says the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
This would be overseen by a passing Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave across the Indian Ocean this week, the Australian Bureau said in its latest update.
The India Met Department has already indicated the possibility of the monsoon, now in a ‘switch-off’ mode along the West Coast, reviving over the weekend.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation wave has been associated with formation of low-pressure areas, cyclones and even the onset of the monsoons.
MJO wave influence The last time it had crossed the Indian Ocean from West to East, the wave had triggered the formation of cyclone Roanu which brought the monsoon along with it to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
If the Madden-Julian Oscillation wave moves across the Indian Ocean and thereafter into the Maritime Continent (Indonesia, Philippines et al), tropical activity will also be enhanced across the North-West Pacific region in the coming fortnight.
The western North Pacific Ocean is typically the most active oceanic basin for tropical cyclones.
However, in the year so far, tropical cyclone activity has been well below average.
The coming weeks are likely to be a period when there is an increased risk of tropical cyclone activity across this basin as well as over the Bay of Bengal.
Cyclone watch Coincidentally, the IMD has put out a watch for a cyclonic circulation over the West-central and adjoining North-West Bay of Bengal by Friday.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts pointed to the possibility of the system taking shape close to the Andhra Pradesh coast.
This is expected to rev up the monsoon flows over the Bay of Bengal but the European Centre did not see the system intensifying to any significant strength.