The US Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) has said that enhanced monsoon activity would continue over Central India and South-East Asia, with the monsoon trough extending right into the North-West Pacific.
The monsoon would stay strong during the ongoing week at least until July 17 (Tuesday next), the CPC said in its latest update.
Strong monsoon conditions, which extend into the North-West Pacific, saw the initiation, growth and propagation of typhoon Maria over the West Pacific as a Category-3 storm.
It would pass to the north of Taiwan and make a landfall over eastern mainland China over the next couple of days. Additional cyclone/typhoon genesis is indicated over the West Pacific during this week.
The west-north-west track of typhoon Maria has not distracted the Indian monsoon, which is firing away aided by cyclonic circulation over Odisha and fresh churning in the Bay of Bengal.
The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has picked another disturbance near Guam, East of the Philippines, as a potential area of development.
Another system is expected to form over the northern reaches of the South China Sea. A third system is forecast to take shape over the North-West Pacific during the next week (July 18 to 24).
The strength and track of movement of these systems would be of interest to monsoon watchers here. But as of now, the monsoon looks to be strong, and may stay that way for another six-seven days.
The monsoon trough with embedded cyclonic circulations, a brewing low-pressure area over the Bay, and a truncated but active offshore trough are currently driving its expansive phase.
Heavy rain forecast
Outlook for today by India Met Department (IMD) is along expected lines - heavy to very heavy rain at a few places with extremely heavy falls at isolated places over an already battered Konkan and Goa.
Heavy to very heavy rain with extremely heavy rain has also been forecast for West Madhya Pradesh and South Gujarat, while it will be heavy to very heavy over Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
Significantly, heavy to very heavy rain has been indicated at isolated places for a deficient Saurashtra, as well as for Uttarakhand, East Rajasthan, East Madhya Pradesh and South Interior Karnataka.
It will be heavy at isolated places over Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Madhya Maharashtra and Vidarbha.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has put the entire West Coast and West Madhya Pradesh, South Gujarat and Saurashtra under watch for heavy rain.
Towns/cities expected to benefit include Veraval, Ahmedabad, Surat, Indore, Itarsi, Lalitpur, Gwalior, Kota, Jaipur, Agra, New Delhi, Dehradun across Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Rains over Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Delhi would be the result of interaction of monsoon easterlies with south-westerlies from the North Arabian Sea.