Heavy rain has been forecast for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry on Thursday and Friday after the North-East monsoon expectedly makes a much delayed onset around November 1 .
Fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely over the southern parts of Peninsular India, which practically covers Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala, from Saturday to Monday, the India Met Department (IMD) said on Monday.
Earlier in the morning, the IMD had said Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and adjoining Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh may start receiving North-East monsoon rains from Thursday.
After the elements refused to oblige it on October 8 and 26, this is the third time that the IMD has reworked the schedule for the North-East monsoon in what has been an intensely testing year.
‘Low’ over North bay
A low-pressure area is likely to form over the West-Central and adjoining North-West Bay of Bengal by Tuesday. But this would be of no consequence to Tamil Nadu or the rest of the South Peninsula.
The ‘low’ is a gift by super typhoon ‘Yutu’ over the North-West Pacific that has gone astray into the Bay due to lack of an adequate steering mechanism.
Thus rains are in turn getting directed towards Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Coastal Odisha. Squally weather has been warned over West-Central and North Bay for two days. Fishermen should not venture into these areas.
But, a long-awaited high-pressure area and its clockwise winds regime (easterlies to the South), which steers and guides the monsoon, is shown as settling over its usual perch over Central India soon.
‘Low to South’
It should be slightly disbursed from its normal bearing due to the onslaught from dry westerly winds from western disturbances, and sit for the time being over the North Bay.
What needs to be watched is the behaviour of a cyclonic circulation located over the South-West Bay and adjoining Sri Lanka.
The US National Weather Services sees a southerly push from across the Equator increasingly pumping moisture over the next few days to strengthen it into a ‘low’ or a depression.
It may cross the South Tamil Nadu Coast and adjoining Kerala and emerge into the Arabian Sea where it would find further traction as it heads across Lakshadweep to the North towards Gujarat/Mumbai.
The US Climate Prediction Centre had earlier predicted the formation of the ‘low’ over the Bay as well as hinted at ‘some development’ in the Arabian Sea early into the season.