As expected, prospects of rains over central India have brightened up with the formation of a land-based rain system over north Madhya Pradesh on Monday.
It will rain down its contents over Northwest Madhya Pradesh and southeast Rajasthan.
BREAKING UP
But global models indicate the system breaking up over north Gujarat by Thursday and rains weakening.
This is likely to end up a case of being ‘so near, yet so far’ in terms of the rains for extreme western parts of Rajasthan.
During this phase, however, peninsular India is forecast to see a revival of rains over parts of peninsular India.
Elsewhere, most of the heavy rains are likely to migrate to the foothills of western and eastern Himalayas and adjoining regions of the bordering states.
Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) seems now resigned to the fact that the monsoon may not be able cover the landmass by July 15, the usual time line.
NORTHERN LIMIT
Eastern parts of the country are now devoid of heavy to very heavy rains for now, though there are signs of fresh clouds building over the Andhra Pradesh and Orissa coasts.
An IMD update this morning said that the northern limit of monsoon Naliya,
Bhuj, Ahmadabad, Jaipur, Churu and Ganganagar.
A weather warning for next two days said that heavy rainfall may break out over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, coastal Karnataka, Lakshadweep, Kerala, Konkan, Goa and Orissa.
An extended outlook valid until Monday next said that rains would lash the west coast, east India, the northeast, western Himalayan region and parts of central India.
DEFICIT SCENARIO
Overall monsoon deficit for the country as a whole stood at 25 per cent as on Saturday, IMD statistics showed.
The worst affected is northwest India at 43 per cent, which, however, is a huge improvement on the 76 per cent until a week ago.
East and northeast India runs short of the normal by 14 per cent, while for central India, it is 26 per cent. For the southern peninsula, the deficit is 31 per cent.
Given this, the next five 10 days could prove crucial for the 2012 monsoon.