The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) crossed a milestone, rising to 101.2 for the week ended August 15, from 99.6 last week, above the pre-pandemic level of 100 for the first time since the pandemic began.
Google mobility indicators continued their uptick, with the workplace and retail & recreation index rising by 1.7pp and 3.4pp, respectively, while the Apple driving index fell by 0.8pp. Power demand rose a solid 5.7 per cent week-on-week, while the labour participation rate eased to 40.4 per cent from 41.5 per cent.
The recovery from the second wave has been very swift: it took the NIBRI nearly 10 months to crawl back towards the 100 mark after the first wave of Covid-19, but less than three months to cross 100 after the second wave. " This supports our more positive growth outlook. We expect Q2 (April-June) GDP growth (data due 31 August) to contract sequentially (-4.3 per cent q-o-q, sa), but rise 29.4 per cent y-o-y, above both the consensus (19 per cent , as per Bloomberg) and RBI expectations (21.4 per cent )," Nomura said.
" Moreover, the continued rise in NIBRI during July-August suggests a strong sequential rebound is likely in Q3. To be sure, the economy is not yet out of the pandemic woods, but current dynamics support our above-consensus GDP forecast of 10.4% y-o-y in FY22 (year ending March 2022)," it added.