India is expected to add more than 650 thousand barrels per day (b/d) refining capacity by 2027 through various brownfield and greenfield expansions, excluding the Vizag project, a report by Kpler said. However, the global real-time data and analytics provider warned that the complexity and scale of these projects requires careful monitoring.
India’s refining capacity is set to rise from 5,282 thousand b/d in March 2025 to 5,935 thousand b/d by end-2027, with 652 thousand b/d of new capacity expected from a wave of greenfield and brownfield projects (excluding Vizag), the energy intelligence firm said.
“While several major projects are slated to come online over the next two years, delays in mechanical commissioning and startup, as seen in Al Zour, Jizan, Dos Bocas, and Dangote, highlight the high-risk profile of mega new refineries and expansions. Despite upbeat timelines, the complexity and scale warrant a cautious outlook,” it added.
India aims to boost refining capacity from 258.1 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to 309.5 mtpa by 2028.
Cautious Outlook
Kpler pointed out that the Barmer refinery project is moving forward, though with notable delays. India’s first greenfield integrated refinery complex since 2016, HPCL Rajasthan Refinery’s (HRRL) pre-commissioning activities for the crude distillation unit (CDU) are expected to begin by end-Q1 2026 with CDU commissioning projected for H2 2026.
The 180 thousand b/d refinery is designed to be one of India’s most petrochemically integrated facilities, with a high petrochemical intensity of 25 per cent. It will process 17 per cent domestic crude from the Mangala oil field and 83 per cent imported crude via the Mundra terminal in Gujarat.
Mechanical completion of major transportation fuel production units has reached around 85 per cent. However, the sulfur recovery block, critical for crude processing, is still significantly behind schedule, Kpler said.
“While initial plans targeted commissioning in Q1 2025, current progress indicates that overall project completion is now expected by Q2 2026, with the petrochemical section likely to come online between Q4 2026 and Q1 2027,” it projected.
Similarly, in the case of Numaligarh Refinery (NRL), which is expanding its capacity from 60 thousand b/d to 180 thousand b/d by adding 120 thousand b/d of CDU capacity, the delay is due to the complexity of the project.
The project was originally expected to be completed by October 2024, but has since been delayed, said Kpler. Sources said that mechanical completion is expected by December 2025.
“As of now, overall mechanical progress stands at approximately 70 per cent, with initial crude feed-in targeted for Q1 2026. Given the complexity of the Residue Hydrocracker Unit (RHCU) and the refinery’s limited prior experience with this kind of technology, the resid hydrocracker unit is expected to come online by Q1 2027,” the agency anticipated.
India’s largest fuel retail, Indian Oil Corporation (IoCL) is also raising the refining capacity at Panipat (Haryana), Vadodara (Gujarat) and Barauni (Bihar).
Kpler pointed out that the Panipat Refinery is currently undergoing a major expansion to increase its crude processing capacity from 300 thousand b/d to 500 thousand b/d. “The project has achieved approximately 55–60 per cent mechanical completion, and first oil cut is expected in Q3 2026,” it added.
In the case of the Vadodara refinery, the project is currently around 40 per cent mechanically complete, with the initial oil expected in Q1 2027. It is undergoing significant capacity expansion to increase the crude processing capacity from 274 thousand b/d to 360 thousand b/d, it said.
IoCL’s Barauni refinery is enhancing capacity expansion from 120 thousand b/d to 180 thousand b/d. “The project was initially targeted for completion in 2023, but has experienced delays. As of now, the project is approximately 55 per cent complete, with mechanical completion expected by Q4 2026,” said Kpler.
As per IoCL’s Q3 FY25 earnings call, the company expects Barauni expansion to take 1-2 years. The completion of expansions for Vadodara and Panipat refineries commissioning is expected in FY26.