The Nomura India Business Resumption Index rose to a record high of 99.4 for the week ending August 8, from 94 last week, almost reaching near the pre-pandemic level (100), and surpassing the pre-second wave peak (of 99.3 in mid-Feb). This suggests that the swifter-than-expected recovery from the second wave slump has continued in early August.
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After briefly plateauing, mobility picked up sharply, with Google workplace, retail & recreation and Apple driving index rising by 7.4 percentage points (pp), 5.3pp and 6.7pp, respectively. Power demand also rose 5.3 per cent week-on-week after contracting for three consecutive weeks, while the labour participation rate rose to 41.5 per cent from 39.8 per cent previously, pushing up the unemployment rate to 8.1 per cent.
“Overall, the latest rise in the NIBRI corrects its plateauing since mid-July, and suggests the swifter-than-expected recovery from the second wave slump has continued in early August. Whether the surge in mobility, in turn, triggers a third wave is a key risk that we continue to monitor,” Nomura said.