Facing strong criticism from various quarters and especially from the principal Opposition Congress, the Modi Government on Sunday clarified that the back series estimates are “not official’’. It also said that these estimates are meant only to facilitate taking a decision on the appropriate approach.
However, the Congress Party continued to attack the Government. In a statement, Senior Congress leader and Former Finance Minister P Chidambaram said that the numbers prove the dictum that truth cannot be suppressed forever and truth has a way of emerging amid a torrent of lies and distortions.
The Government’s clarification came after the Committee on Real Sector Statistics, one of the five committees constituted by the National Statistical Commission, estimated that the Indian economy grew 10.08 per in 2006-07 under the then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the highest since liberalisation of the economy in 1991.
The report compares growth rates between the old series (2004-05) and the new series based on 2011-12 prices. As per the old series (2004-05), the expansion in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant prices was 9.57 per cent during 2006-07, when Manmohan Singh was Prime Minister. As per the new series (2011-12), the growth number was revised upwards which gave the Congress a reason to celebrate and criticise the Modi Government.
A Government statement said that the Committee on Real Sector Statistics looked at the issue of data challenges in bringing out the back series of GDP (Base 2011-12) as several new sources had been used in the current series which were not available or not reliable in the earlier series (Base 2004-05).
The committee tackled the data challenges using different approaches. Three possible approaches were considered for generating the back series. One approach was broadly based on the new GDP methodology by using the base data wherever available.
Another method was based on production shift approach. A third approach was to project the old series using the base year 2004-05 forwards up to, say, 2014-15, then adjust it to the 2011-12 base by comparing it with the new series. The committee used the production shift approach and came out with some experimental results to see how the approach compares with the earlier series.
Now the Government has made it clear that these recommendations of the NSC Committees will be examined by MoSPI (Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation) and other experts for deciding on the appropriate methodology to be adopted for generating the back series estimates for each sector.
“The Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics will be deliberating on the back series estimates before finalising the same for continuity, consistency and reliability,” it said.
Arguments by Chidambaram
The former Finance Minister alleged that since the advent of the BJP-led NDA government in May 2014, there has been a determined effort to run down the record of the two UPA governments under Dr Manmohan Singh during 2004-2009 and 2009-2014.
A lot of confusion was sown and the Modi Government added to the confusion by changing the base year from 2004-05 to 2011-12. He also mentioned that his party had repeatedly demanded that the back-series data of GVA and GDP should be calculated and released so that meaningful comparisons can be made. Now, “the numbers speak for themselves,” he claimed.
He also alleged that high growth with equity and social justice have suffered under the Modi Government. “For the sake of the country, we wish the government well in its fifth year. Weknow it cannot match the average growth rate of UPA 1, but we hope it can catch up with the average growth rate of UPA 2,” he said.