The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) picked up for a sixth consecutive week to 91.3 for the week ended July 4 from 86.3 the previous week. The index is now only 8.7 percentage points below pre-pandemic levels and 3.6 percentage points below pre-second wave level.
Mobility indicators like Google’s workplace and retail and recreation mobility indices moved up 3.1pp and 6.9pp, respectively, from the previous week, while the Apple driving index climbed 10.3pp.
Power demand surged 6.9 per cent week-on-week after a 7.8 per cent rise the previous week, though the labour participation rate inched down to 39.6 per cent.
“The first flush of ‘conventional’ monthly data for June, like trade, GST E-way bills, and auto and diesel sales has improved sequentially from May levels, in line with our expectations, despite softer manufacturing and services PMIs and stagnant railway freight revenues,” Nomura said in a report on Monday.
Vaccination drive
“We expect a higher average vaccination pace in July than the 3.8 million doses per day in June, due to improving supply, but the real pivot will likely take place in August, when we expect supply capacity to rise materially,” it added
Nomura said that notwithstanding third wave risks, the data so far support the view that the economic hit is likely to be localised to Q2, with GDP growth averaging an above-consensus 10.4 per cent y-o-y in FY22.