India’s smartphone manufacturing output will grow to a record 20% share of global output in 2025, fuelled by export demand from Apple and Samsung, as per Counterpoint Research. This is against predictions of the global output declining by 1 per cent this year due to tariff impacts and a broader industry slowdown.
In 2024, China, India, and Vietnam accounted for over 90 per cent of the global manufacturing output, with India leading in terms of growth. This year, India is set to be the long-term winner.
Manufacturing growth
Observing the recent manufacturing growth spurt in India, Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst, Prachir Singh, said, “With traditional global EMS giants continuing to invest in India and local EMS actively participating, the country’s local manufacturing capabilities have significantly improved and are now capable of meeting higher production demands – after nearly a decade of refinement.”
Vietnam, as a global manufacturing export hub, will also see robust growth driven by Samsung and Motorola amid the pressure of tariffs and manufacturing relocation. However, the tables are expected to turn on China this year that will soon be hit by US tariffs. This will result in declining output coupled with forecast domestic underperformance.
Commenting on the trend, Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst, Ivan Lam, said, “The global smartphone manufacturing shift has been accelerating after the COVID-19 pandemic, but the tariffs have hurt industry players at every level – from upstream component suppliers to downstream importers and distributors, brands to manufacturers. Consequently, brand owners have no choice but to move out of China and allocate more production capacity and output in other countries. The main winners are India, which has significant growth potential, and Vietnam, which is relatively closer to China and has a mature contract manufacturing and export sector for consumer electronics.”
Other geographies, driven by local market conditions, will continue to see declines due to their small and constrained positions in global manufacturing and weakening demand for smartphone in their domestic markets.