Fuelled by export demand from Apple and Samsung, India is set to be the big winner in 2025, with output growing in double-digit percentages to reach a record 20 per cent share of the global output.
China will feel the effects of tariffs in 2025, resulting in output declines and domestic underperformance, said Counterpoint Research’s latest global smartphone manufacturing allocation tracker on Tuesday.
In 2025, global smartphone manufacturing output is expected to decline by 1 per cent due to tariff impacts and a broader industry slowdown, following a 4 per cent rise in 2024, it said.
China, India, and Vietnam were responsible for more than 90 per cent of the global manufacturing output in 2024, with India leading in terms of growth. However, in 2025, manufacturing outputs from different countries are expected to show mixed performances, the report said.
“With traditional global electronics manufacturing services (EMS) giants continuing to invest in India and local EMS actively participating, the country’s local manufacturing capabilities have significantly improved and are now capable of meeting higher production demands after nearly a decade of refinement. Meanwhile, India’s overall manufacturing ecosystem is continuously growing, and local manufacturing is consistently improving, both in terms of yield and complexity,” said Prachir Singh, Senior Analyst, Counterpoint Research.
Manufacturing scheme
To further boost the component ecosystem, the government recently launched the Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme (ECMS), incentivising companies to invest and build in the country, he said.
The report also mentioned that India can be a long-term winner based on the current global scenario.
“If Apple really produced an iPhone in a US factory, considering that everything is not in place yet, my estimate is that the price will go up by at least 15-20 per cent — $150 to $200. We believe this cost increase will be mostly due to the cost delta of labour, factories’ amortised capex and logistics,” said Neil Shah, Vice-President at Counterpoint Research.
Shifting supply chains is not an overnight task; it requires significant effort, capital and time. Countries such as China, India, and Vietnam took decades to build and achieve their current capabilities and capacities, he added.
Ivan Lam, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research also said the global smartphone manufacturing shift has been accelerating after the Covid-19 pandemic, but the tariffs have hurt industry players at every level – from upstream component suppliers to downstream importers and distributors, brands to manufacturers.
“Consequently, brand owners have no choice but move out of China and allocate more production capacity and output in other countries. The main winners are India, which has significant growth potential, and Vietnam, which is relatively closer to China, and has a mature contract manufacturing and export sector for consumer electronics,” he said.